With another war looming in eastern Congo, security experts in the Great Lakes region are now questioning whether neighbouring countries have the political will to find a solution to the Congo problem or are merely protecting their interests.

At a recent meeting to discuss the regional dimensions on the conflicts in the Great Lakes, experts concurred that the DRC government is weak and unable to secure its territory, while the many armed illegal groups continue to pose security threats to Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi.

According to Nelson Alusula, a member of the UN group of experts on DRC, the continues conflict in the Great Lakes region is partly because there is no hegemonic force with power to control the region, because no country has ever had a decisive victory over the other.

Unlike Southern Africa and West Africa where South Africa and Nigeria have the military might and the power to dictate terms, most conflicts in the region have ended in cease-fires that are easily broken.

The best examples are when South Africa invaded Namibia during World War I and occupied it until 1990, and when Nigeria intervened in Liberia during the civil war in the 1990s.

Currently, the M23 rebellion could not only turn out to be a major conflict in the eastern Congo, but is likely to sour relations between DRC and Rwanda. 

Uganda president Yoweri Museveni has responded by hosting a major conference for leaders of the Great Lakes region in August to discuss the rebellion and insecurity in Congo,

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Francis Wairagu, the head of research at the Regional Centre for Small arms, attributes the perennial conflict within the Great Lakes region to the weakness of the DRC state, the availability of resources to be exploited and the interrelation with the region at the level of ethnic groups like that has seen groups like the Democratic Liberation Forces of Rwanda (FDLR) and the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) roam freely in the region.

There are also questions whether Rwanda government should enter into dialogue with opposition groups and allow more democracy to enable Rwandese refugees to return home and stop fighting in exile?

Insecurity continue to pose challenges to post-war DRC include a high proliferation of illegal arms, the presence of illegal armed groups, an integrated army constituted partly by former illegal armed groups, insufficient security sector reforms and inadequate infrastructure which negatively affect security administration.

In the east, security remains elusive due to the presence of illegal armed such groups, both local and foreign.

The local armed groups are Force Patriotique Pour La Liberation du Congo, Mai Mai Sheka, Mai Mai Yakutumba, and the Armee de Resistance Populaire.

Key foreign armed groups are the Allied Democratic Forces and the Lord’s resistance Army from Uganda, the FDLR, and the Rally for Unity and Democracy from Rwanda and Forces national de Liberation from Burundi.

According to Nyambura Githaiga, a researcher on conflict prevention and risk analysis with Institute for Security Studies, the integration of some of these groups in Congolese army has elicited mixed reactions, especially as particular armed groups seem to have benefited more than others.

The result of the  integration of former National Congress for the Defence of the People( CNDP)  that  belonged to Laurent Nkunda who was arrested in 2009 by Rwanda, is that its officers have been placed in key positions it the two Kivus.

“The local people who suffered the brunt of CNDP attacks now find certain individuals in key positions of Congolese army where they are ironically to provide civilian protection. This has evoked the sentiment that justice has been sacrificed for peace,” said Ms Githaiga.

Still, there are questions whether countries in the region—Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and to an extent Tanzania and Kenya, are keen to stabilise DRC after all agree that the centre is weak?

Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi face security threats emanating from DRC in the form of illegal armed groups. 

Rwanda has always been directly affected by events in eastern Congo due to historical links.