The deadly Ebola epidemic could inflict a financial blow of up to $359 million on the fragile economies of the worst affected countries in West Africa this year.

An analysis done by the World Bank shows the loss could rise to $809 million in the worst case scenario by the end of 2015 if the rate of infection accelerates.

If, on the other hand, the ongoing international efforts succeed in containing the disease, the economic loss  could shrink to $97 million by the end of next year.

“The sooner we get an adequate containment response and decrease the level of fear and uncertainty, the faster we can blunt Ebola’s economic impact,” the World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim said.

Mr Kim said the analysis done by the World Bank underscores the  huge potential cost if the world does not scale up efforts to contain the disease.

The short-term fiscal impacts, according to the World Bank, are large. This year, Liberia is expected to suffer an economic loss of $93 million (4.7 per cent of GDP); Sierra Leone, $79 million  representing 1.8 per cent of GDP and Guinea, $120 million equivalent to 1.8 per cent of GDP.

Financing gaps in 2015

The financial institution warned that slow containment gaps would almost certainly lead to even greater financing gaps in 2015.

The disease has so far killed more than 2400 people in West Africa and it is feared that the virus might spread to other Ebola-free countries in sub-Saharan Africa if not contained.

The latest report by the World Health Organisation reveals a high fatality rate, saying that 70 per cent of those infected with Ebola in West Africa have died of the disease.

In a study published in the New England Journal of Medicine, warned infections might treble to 20,000 by November, if efforts to  contain the disease are not stepped up.

The World Bank said the  response efforts should also help  in mitigating “aversion behaviour” – a fear factor resulting from peoples’ concerns about contagion, which, it added, was fuelling the economic impact.

World Bank said in the recent history of infectious disease outbreaks such as the SARS epidemic of 2002-2004 and the H1N1 flu epidemic of 2009, behavioural effects have been responsible for as much as 80 – 90 per cent of the total economic impact of the epidemics.