Debate on whether Rwandans should amend the Constitution to allow President Paul Kagame to run for a third term could affect the country’s economic prospects if investors decide to adopt a wait-and-see attitude. 

While the country has in the recent past witnessed growing calls from top members of the ruling Rwandan Patriotic Front, politicians aligned to the ruling party and civil servants for a referendum to change the Constitution, RPF is yet to come up with an official position on the matter.

Analysts warn that investors could hold back their capital as they wait for a clear political roadmap.   

“Investors all over the world value certainty, predictability and transparency. This also applies to Rwanda,” said Mitra Farahbaksh, IMF resident representative to Rwanda, declining to comment further on the issue, arguing that the Fund’s mandate is to “focus on economic issues.”

World Bank lead economist and programme leader for Eritrea, Kenya and Rwanda, Apurva Sanghi, added: “One thing that has been proven many times in different contexts, is that security and political stability are important factors for investment.” 

However, Leonard Rugwabiza, the chief economist in the Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning, said, “Whatever Rwandans decide, stability will continue. At the end of the day, stability is about institutions and people. If you look at one of the [unspecified] World Bank reports on political stability, you find that Rwanda is ranked as more politically stable than China and India.” 

A resurgent Rwandan economy — which expanded by 7.1 per cent last year according to the World Bank — as well as reconciliation after the 1994 genocide are seen as major selling points for President Kagame should he bid for a third term in office. 

Political analysts say the ruling party is likely have an easy ride in the 2017 General Election as opposition within and outside the country remains weak and disunited.  

A report released by Amnesty International last week, which has been dismissed as baseless by Kigali, says that political opposition continue to face serious hurdles, with those operating within the country facing administrative obstacles. 

READ: Rwanda dismisses Human Rights Watch report

“The few permitted opposition parties faced a repressive environment. Legal procedures for establishing political parties remained lengthy and time-consuming,” the report says. 

The rights watchdog raised concerns over a missing member of the Democratic Green Party of Rwanda (DGPR), Jean Damascène Munyeshyaka, who was last seen in June 27, 2014 in Nyamata, Bugesera district, as one of the worrying cases. 

“The DGPR alleged that prior to his disappearance he received a telephone call from an individual requesting that they meet immediately. The DGPR had reported administrative obstacles in registering and state surveillance, harassment and intimidation because of their political activities,” Amnesty International says.

By John Gahamanyi and Edmund Kagire