The big losers in Sudan's flawed election are the abused and ignored people of Darfur

As Sudan’s historic nationwide polls closed and the world awaited results, many who documented the vote declared the people of Darfur to be among the losers in Sudan’s primarily peaceful but deeply flawed elections. 

Despite these problems, it seems likely that the international community — including the United States and the African Union — will effectively dismiss the abuses that have transpired and sign off on the election results, legitimising President al-Bashir’s rule.

The African Union’s High Level Implementation Panel on Darfur, led by former South African president Thabo Mbeki, had in its report released last year focused on the region’s historical marginalisation and underdevelopment, which it cited as the war’s key causative factors, and urged a peace agreement and then Darfur’s participation in the crucial national elections.

The report emphasised that although people in Darfur “reflected anxiety” about the April polls, “ it is imperative that Sudanese citizens in Darfur are able to participate fully in free and fair general elections.” 

But in the months leading up to the elections — amid voter and opposition boycotts, and as promising peace deals and ceasefires faltered in negotiations in Doha — many sceptics questioned how the region’s beleaguered population, which includes millions of internally displaced persons, could participate in a free, fair and peaceful electoral process when none of those qualities describe Darfur itself.

Although Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir has declared the war in Darfur over, impunity and insecurity persist. Recent fighting in Jebel Marra and in Jebel Moon has resulted in up to 400 deaths and has displaced an estimated 100,000 civilians, leaving the local populations without access to humanitarian assistance or military protection. Last week, renewed “tribal” fighting killed another 50-plus civilian deaths.

Darfur’s peacekeepers and aid workers have been increasingly targeted, resulting in kidnapping, banditry, and even killings. Days before voting began, the European Union monitoring team pulled out, citing security concerns, and just as the nationwide polls were underway, four South African peacekeepers went missing in Darfur.

On Tuesday — the third day of voting — the joint United Nations African-Union mission, Unamid, confirmed their abduction at gunpoint.

This incident is only the latest of many that highlight how the “calm but unpredictable” security environment in Darfur in reality means it is safe for no one, least of all those trying to alleviate the crisis.

In this context, opposition politics remains a dangerous and nearly impossible pursuit in Darfur. Intimidation prevails, and the region remains under a state of emergency.

There is no evidence that any of the various armed groups have Darfuri interests in mind as they try to gain leverage amid faltering ceasefires and ongoing peace talks, and the election results will no doubt have implications for their tactics.

It is little wonder, then, that the more than two million displaced people in camps and members of other war-affected communities generally boycotted the registration process.

Even if one accepts that the bloody war (with the related mass atrocities) has devolved into a low-intensity conflict, the brutal consequences of the crisis on a daily basis confront the vast majority of its citizens.

Without the opportunity to choose leadership other than Bashir and his ruling party, Darfuris were understandably hesitant to take any part in a sham that seeks to legitimise a regime that has directly contributed to their ongoing grievances.

This is not, however, the ruling party’s interpretation of the Darfur constituency’s political outlook. In the week before the polls opened, rhetoric from NCP leaders like Nafie Ali Nafie began to reveal the government’s plans for a painful new chapter in Darfur and Sudan.

Nafie declared that overall participation of Darfuris in the election process would be high, and stated, “Darfuris will vote for the NCP,” promising the crowd that “Darfur will find salvation after an NCP victory.”

Perhaps for different reasons, the head of the AU Observer Mission in Sudan and former president of Ghana John Kufuor said he believed the people of Darfur generally appreciated what he referred to as “the institution of election.”

Even those who boycotted the vote or complained about irregularities, he said, believed the election is a “necessary beginning” for the country’s more positive future.

It is therefore unfortunate that Darfur has been robbed of its participation in this national milestone. The Carter Centre determined two days after the polls closed, “With respect to Darfur, the Centre cannot endorse elections in the region as meeting national or international standards.”

The “legal and security conditions” in Darfur necessary for political activity to be freely conducted were not realised in advance of the polls, and are now unlikely to be fulfilled, leaving many in fear of what’s next for the troubled region.

Nevertheless, Bashir’s government will soon declare an overwhelming victory in all of Sudan. It will declare that, despite decades of war and repression, it has earned a mandate from the people it governs, and the citizens it has oppressed will somehow find salvation in its continuing reign.

Bashir will confidently excuse his ICC indictment, while the world — desperate to move on to the next chapter in Sudan’s transformation — will very probably accept the results.

The reality is that these elections have effectively pushed Darfur further into the margins, and amid renewed fears have deprived its people of true leadership.

Sean Brooks is a policy analyst at the Save Darfur Coalition; he recently returned from a month-long trip to Sudan. Celeste Robinson specialises in security and civilian protection in Africa.