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Attacks rising, fighters becoming more vicious

Saturday September 20 2014
EATerrorII

WESTGATE ANNIVERSARY: One year after the attack on a Nairobi mall, evidence shows that the region remains vulnerable to threats, particularly from the Middle East, and that the war on terror is far from being won. AFP PHOTO | TONY KARUMBA

A year after the attack on Westgate Mall in Nairobi, evidence shows that the region remains vulnerable to the threat of terrorism, particularly from the Middle East, and that the war against terror is far from being won.

In 2007 there were 28 Salafi-jihadist groups similar to Al Qaeda, but these had risen to 49 by last year, according to recent research findings by the Rand Corporation.

The number of terrorists has also risen rapidly over the same period, from between 18,000 and 42,000, to over 100,000 by last year. These terror groups are also more prolific with the number of attacks rising from 100 in 2007 to 950 last year.

“Since 2010, there has been a 58 per cent increase in the number of jihadist groups, a doubling of jihadist fighters and a tripling of attacks by al Qaeda affiliates,” the Rand Corporation warned.

Al Shabaab, the Somalia-based terror group that claimed responsibility for the Westgate attack in which at least 67 people were killed, has expanded its operations across the region and built links with other terrorist organisations like al Qaeda in the Middle East and Boko Haram in west Africa.

The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) says the emergence of the Islamic State in Syria (ISIS), which has vowed to set up a caliphate in the Middle East and called on other extremist groups across the world to do the same, poses the “most significant development in Islamic extremism since the 9/11 attacks.”

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ISIS has recruited foreign fighters from all over the world with the Central Intelligence Agency estimating the number to be 15,000, with many from North Africa and the Horn of Africa region.

In a just-released report, the South Africa-based ISS warns that Africa remains vulnerable to the conflict in the Middle East spilling over onto the continent as extremist groups there expand their sphere of influence, or as increasing military pressure forces their fighters to disperse.

“What is of concern though is that the Islamic State could become a source of funding for the African terror groups that have pledged allegiance to them,” according to Simon Allison, a researcher with ISS and author of the new report, The Islamic State: Why Africa Should be Worried.

“Estimates suggest that the Islamic State is the richest terrorist organisation in the world, with assets in excess of $2 billion and daily oil revenue control of $3 million,” he added, ominously pointing to the number of African fighters recruited to the group.

Faultlines

Governments in Somalia, Kenya, Uganda, Algeria, Libya, Mali, Nigeria, Egypt and elsewhere are quietly worried about what will happen when thousands of well-trained, battle-hardened fighters return home after stints with the Islamic State or other jihadist groups in Syria.

“There are plenty of existing faultlines on the continent for the Islamic State to exploit, and plenty of radical Islamist groups that know how to exploit them. This is a dilemma facing most governments on the continent,” Mr Allison said.

Between 2011 and 2013, those killed in the fighting in Syria included Tunisians (1,902), Libyans (1,807), Moroccans (400) and at least 273 Algerians, according to data from the African Centre for Study and Research on Terrorism. Thousands more remain with the fighting groups.

While al Qaeda and its affiliates have not been able to carry out a major terror attack on the West since 9/11, experts note that terrorism is expanding in other regions and becoming more decentralised.

The Rand Corporation, for example, noted a “significant increase” in attacks by groups affiliated to al Qaeda between 2007 and 2013, including the Islamic State of Iraq (43 per cent), al Shabaab (25 per cent) and Jabhat al-Nusra (21 per cent).

As it gets harder to attack targets in the West, many of these terror groups are turning their guns and suicide vests against targets in their regions of operation.

“This suggests that al Qaeda and its affiliates have deliberately chosen to focus on the near enemy for the moment, found it increasingly difficult to strike ‘far enemy’ targets in the West, or a combination of both,” Rand noted in its report.

The US State Department notes that al Qaeda has suffered reversals in Afghanistan and Pakistan, including the death of its founder and leader Osama bin Laden. However, it notes that terror attacks increased from 6,700 to 9,700 between 2012 and 2013, with almost 18,000 people killed and nearly 33,000 injured.

The attack on Westgate was al Shabaab’s second major act of terrorism outside Somalia and followed the July 2010 World Cup bombings in Kampala that claimed 76 lives.

These were all part of the 334 attacks recorded in East Africa between 1998, when the US embassies in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam were bombed, and 2012, according to the Global Terrorism Database. While the majority of these were in Somalia (260), there were 70 recorded and foiled attacks in Kenya.

Authorities in the region have increased their security budgets, strengthened laws, and counter-terrorism capabilities.

At a recent meeting of regional police chiefs in Mombasa, the head of Interpol in the region, Francis Rwego, said governments were often playing catch-up against increasingly sophisticated terror networks.

“We need to strengthen co-operation in a bid to improve counter terrorism efforts,” said Mr Rwego. “There is also the need for the establishment of Financial Intelligence Units in the East African countries in order to track terrorism funding.”

There is growing evidence of co-operation between groups across regions, such as between al Shabaab and Boko Haram in Nigeria.

Security and intelligence officials meeting in Nairobi last week called for smarter continent-wide co-operation between governments to deal with the increasingly globalised terror networks.

Most of the terror groups thrive in areas with corrupt, weak or non-existent governments as well as the lack of rule of law.

Nigeria’s fledgling efforts to deal with Boko Haram — the Governor of Borno State Kashim Shettima says the group is “better armed and better motivated” than the Nigerian Army — are symptomatic of the struggles to deal with terrorism in Africa’s largest economy and the rest of the continent.

Governments also need to stop the recruitment of young people into terrorist groups.

“For nations to address terrorism, it is necessary to find out the motivating factors for these youths and how they can be changed to stop the flow of youth to fight in foreign lands,” said Mr Rwego.

Sometimes efforts to deal with terrorism are counter-productive. Within East Africa, brutal counter-terrorism operations especially in Kenya have been blamed for the rise in radicalisation and extremism among disenchanted youth who claim human right abuses, religion profiling and high-handedness by law-enforcement authorities.

Simiyu Werunga, the director of the Nairobi-based African Centre for Security and Strategic Studies, says poverty and high unemployment drive many youths into the hands of terrorism recruiters.

“Vulnerable youths are likely to be swayed by the money promised by ISIS and their sympathisers (al Shabaab) and this is the stark reality we are facing as a region,” he said.

Poverty among Kenya’s marginalised groups in the coastal and northern regions has been a key reason why youth become vulnerable to manipulation and recruitment into terror groups.

“It is important to understand that economic hardships have forced a number of youths to join such terror organisations. Some of them join due to desperation because they cannot access gainful employment, even after graduating from colleges and universities. Countries need to address this,” said Mr Werunga.

Records currently available from government and also the Kenya Muslim Youth Alliance indicate that by 2012, almost 500 youths had travelled to Somalia to fight for al Shabaab.

ISIS pays its fighters $150 per day, according to some estimates while al Shabaab promises to pay monthly salaries of about $500, princely sums for many listless youths in East Africa’s slums, and more than what many law-enforcement officials make.

Apart from the financial incentives, terrorist groups like ISIS are early technology adopters and adept at using social media for recruitment and propaganda.

Mohammed Amin, who runs the Imarika network, a campaign to empower the Muslim youth says that most radical youths would be enticed to join ISIS because of the money and the economic power base it has.

“We have several youths in Somalia who went there for varying reasons. Some went there intending to perform jihad, others went simply for employment while others were radicalised and believe they are fighting a holy way. They came back disillusioned because they were not paid.  The same scenario is with ISIS who also share the exact reasons for engaging in the Syrian and Iraq conflicts, but they are different because they are worth billions of dollars,” said Mr Amin.

Recently the Kenyan government re-launched the National Youth Service (NYS) with an aim of drafting more than 20,000 youth in a recruitment exercise.

“Due to the rise of insecurity in Kenya, the recruitment will be used to reduce the instances of the youth being drafted into terrorist groups. Since the majority of the targets of radicalisation are the young people, joining the Kenya National Youth Service will be a great weapon in eliminating the occurrence of controversial groups within our country,” a statement on the NYS website states.

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