An energy scandal that has led to the sacking of one of Tanzania’s most celebrated diplomats, a resignation and the suspension of two senior civil servants has left CCM in limbo and tainted the legacy of President Jakaya Kiwete as Tanzania prepares for the 2015 elections.

The scandal will have an impact on Prime Minister Mizengo Pinda’s bid for the presidency in next year’s general election after the Parliamentary Public Accounts Committee (PAC) linked him to the scam. PAC has further threatened to move a motion to veto him in the 12th parliamentary sitting in January next year. The scandal also dims the prospects of Anne Tibaijuka’s becoming Tanzania’s first female president

Political scientists said Prof Tibaijuka as one of the most successful women politicians was lately seen as a potential compromise candidate for CCM, which has recently been dogged with faction politics.

Her involvement in the scandal now means that she is unlikely to even secure a party nomination to run for a parliamentary seat in her constituency, which lost to the main opposition party Chadema in the recently concluded local government elections.

READ: Kikwete fires Tibaijuka for taking $1 million ‘bribe’

Bishops in their Christmas sermons unanimously called on President Kikwete to sack all the senior government officials linked to the scandal and prosecute them as a way of reaffirming his commitment to fight corruption.

Kitila Mkumbo, political commentator and head of the Educational Psychology Department at the University of Dar es Salaam, sees no political future for Prof Tibaijuka. He said returning to activism, where she previously was before joining the UN and politics, was the most likely move but integrity issues would now undermine her.

Before her UN-Habitat career, Prof Tibaijuka had formed a nationwide National Women’s Council of Tanzania (Bawata) in 1995, which was in the same year deregistered by the government. Bawata challenged the ban for 14 years before the court ruled in favour of the organisation in 2009.

Prof Tibaijuka became a minister after a successful career as a UN-Habitat executive director. She vied for a parliamentary position for Muleba South where she beat former Dar es Salaam special zone police chief, Alfred Tibaigana and former minister of state in the president’s Office- Good Governance, Wilson Masilingi.

The recent municipal and village elections in her constituency, in which the main opposition party won 50 villages and the ruling party Chama cha Mapinduzi (CCM) 38, were seen to indicate her shrinking popularity at the grassroots. Sources see Prof Tibaijuka’s waning fortunes as an opportunity for Mr Masilingi’s return as a possible CCM candidate for 2015.

Parliament passed resolutions calling for President Kikwete to sack Prof Tibaijuka, Energy and Minerals Minister Sospeter Muhongo, Attorney-General Frederick Werema and Energy Permanent Secretary Eliakim Maswi for their involvement in the scandal.

Still in office

The sacking of Prof Tibaijuka, suspension of Mr Maswi and the resignation of Mr Werema leaves Prof Muhongo as the only person implicated in the scandal who still holds an office. President Kikwete said in his address early last week that he would take disciplinary measures against him upon the conclusion of an ongoing investigation.

Prof Muhongo, a high-profile geologist, was appointed Minister for Energy and Minerals in 2012 after he was nominated a CCM MP.

Benson Bana, a political scientist at the University of Dar es Salaam, said that Prof Muhongo needs to be removed at the earliest possible time “because his continued stay is making matters worse with donors who withheld budget support from May this year followed by the US, which said it wouldn’t be releasing any further funds under the Millennium Challenge Account.”

In 2008, prime minister Edward Lowassa and energy minister Nazir Karamagi and former energy minister Ibrahim Msabaha (who was East African Community minister at the time of the scandal) were forced to resign following a parliamentary inquiry into a corruption scandal involving an energy deal.

In 2006, US-based electricity company Richmond Development was contracted to bring in generators to provide 100 Megawatts of electricity following a severe drought, but the firm failed to do so.

Four years later in 2012, energy minister William Ngeleja was forced to resign after a Controller and Auditor-General (CAG) audit exposed embezzlement of funds.

The sacking of Prof Tibaijuka has paved the way for a possible Cabinet reshuffle that would make President Kikwete’s government the administration with the highest number of reshuffles in 30 years. Former president Ali Hassan Mwinyi (1985-1995) had two reshuffles while President Benjamin Mkapa (1995-2005) did not make any.

Dr Bana, a political scientist at the University of Dar es Salaam, said Prof Tibaijuka’s handling of the scandal marked the end of her political career. “She also overlooked the ethics of allowing money to be deposited in her personal account instead of the school’s account, which she claimed was where the money went.”

Dr Bana also said that CCM should remove Prof Tibaijuka from its central committee, “to which she was appointed by the incumbent president, who is also the party chairman, “as a way of sending a message to others implicated in the scandal to save the hegemonic political party from further shame and possible humiliation in the coming polls next year.”

On the matter of President Kikwete’s legacy, Prof Mkumbo said he was mistakenly perceived as the icon of anti-corruption when he was vying for presidency for the first time in 2005.

“One thing President Kikwete has done for Tanzania is to weaken his own party for the good of democracy. We have the weakest CCM. This will make the next general election the most unpredictable because it will be very competitive, which is good for democracy but bad for CCM,” said Prof Mkumbo.

Prof Mkumbo said the Kikwete administration has been characterised by mega scandals, from embezzlement of public funds in 2012 to abuse of human rights and now the escrow account scandal. These scandals have claimed the jobs of several Cabinet ministers.

However, Dr Bana said it was lamentable that pertinent issues such as the Constitution and the referendum had been pushed aside for the escrow scandal.