Rwandan authorities and the International Monetary Fund have sought to allay fears that the country’s population growth — which has averaged 2.6 per cent over the past 10 years — could put a strain on its resources.

Preliminary population and housing census results released jointly by the Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning and the Rwanda National Institute of Statistics show that Rwanda’s population grew to 10.5 million from 8.2 million in the period from 2002 to 2012.

While a high population growth spells a strain on resources in most economies, the International Monetary Fund says Rwanda is not likely to suffer from the shocks given its strong economy.

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Fertility rate

In the period under review, the population density increased from 321 persons per square kilometre to 416 at national level, the highest in the East African region and number 27 globally — well behind Macau’s whopping 19,610 per sq km but still very high for a country of its size.

In East Africa, next on the list is Burundi at number 47 with 289 people per sq km, Uganda at number 84 with 136 people per sq km, Kenya at number 137 with 66 people per sq km, and lastly Tanzania at number 155 with 49 people per sq km. In other words, Rwanda’s population density is nearly 10 times that of Kenya.

The fertility rate in Rwanda has however been coming down. Currently, women in Rwanda have an average of 4.6 children, down from 6.1 in 2005.

With only 24,670 sq. km of land available for farming and settlement, the 10.5 million people will put more pressure on the land with the likely result being reduced productivity.

The IMF and government say that because of the strong economic growth sustained by prudent economic policies, the country will be resilient to shocks emanating from the high population growth rate.

“Rwanda’s economic growth puts it at a comfortable level. The government is working hard to maintain macroeconomic stability. The country is improving its export base. This is why growth is increasing,” said Mitra Farahbaksh, IMF resident representative, in a telephone interview with The EastAfrican.

Recent figures from the National Bank of Rwanda show that the economy grew at an average of 7.8 per cent through most of 2012 and was projected to close the year at 8.6 per cent, making Rwanda the fastest growing economy in the region.

The growth rate also reflects the fact that the economy is growing faster than the population.

Finance Minister John Rwangombwa said the increasing production of goods and services registered in the country in the recent past has reduced pressure on resources.

Growth in agriculture, which is the major employer, was accompanied by growth in infrastructure including schools, hospitals, housing, roads, resources food, water, electricity and jobs.

The census results also show that the population in Rwanda tends to migrate to areas where there are opportunities.

Eastern Province, where there is relatively plentiful land suitable for livestock and crop farming, is heavily settled.

Eastern, which is also home to most of the Rwandans who returned from exile after the 1994 genocide, has a population of about 2.6 million.

According to the minister, Kigali has the lowest population of about 1.1 million people — of which Gasobo district has 530,907 people; Nyarugenge, which houses the Central Business District has a population of 284,860 while Rulindo has 288,452 people.

The ratio of women remains high in Rwanda, with 93 men per 100 women.

“The sex composition of the population growth, however, as measured by the sex ratio, indicates that, at national level, there are more males being born than females, with 106 against 100,” said Yusuf Murangwa, director general of the National Institute of Statistics.

A national food balance sheet analysis shows Rwanda has remained resilient to food shocks as other countries in the region grapple with food shortages.

A survey commissioned by Ministry of Agriculture and Animal Resources and the WFP and carried out by the National Institute of Statistics reported a food surplus of 126,000 metric tonnes.

The healthy food balance was made possible by government interventions such as land consolidation, application of inputs and extension services to farmers for key crops, said Dr Jean Jacques Mbonigaba, director general of the Rwanda Agriculture Board.