Obama’s Somalia Policy a lot like ours, Bush advisor says

The Bush administration’s top Africa policymaker sees little new about President Barack Obama’s approach to Somalia.

“There’s not much variation in policy at all, despite our being attacked on Somalia during the campaign,” says Jendayi Frazer, assistant secretary of state for African affairs during President George W. Bush’s second term.

The Obama administration is continuing to invest in Somalia’s Transitional Federal Government while carrying out intelligence operations — and occasional air strikes — against Islamists inside the country.

But the results of this strategy may not prove any more positive for Obama than for Bush.

The TFG still controls only a corner of Mogadishu, Somalia’s capital, despite a US-backed invasion by Ethiopia in 2006 that was intended to crush an Islamist insurgency.

And the Islamists remain powerful in many parts of the chaotic country.

Ms Frazer, now a scholar at Carnegie-Mellon University in the state of Pennsylvania, says she does not expect a planned TFG offensive to decisively alter Somalia’s stalemated status quo.

She expresses scepticism about the TFG’s ability to capitalise politically on gains it may make militarily.

Offensive

The anticipated offensive against Al Shabaab militants will likely take place in Kismayu in southern Somalia as well as in Mogadishu, Ms Frazer adds.

One key to stabilising Somalia is the expansion of peacekeeping forces, she suggests. Stronger efforts should be made to augment the African Union Mission in Somalia, now roughly 5,000-strong, she says.

Amisom was originally envisioned as consisting of 8,000 troops from various African countries.

Uganda and Burundi are so far the only states to have assigned forces to Amisom.