The decision last week by former prime minister Amama Mbabazi to temporarily bow out as the secretary general of the National Resistance Movement has given its chairperson President Yoweri Museveni more latitude to manage it but in no way, guarantees the ruling party a more secure future, analysts say.

Museveni is expected to seek amendments to the party constitution that increase his powers during the delegates’ conference scheduled for December 15. However analysts caution that the outcomes of such manoeuvres may, in fact, serve to advance the perceived presidential interests of Mr Mbabazi, who has been Museveni’s right-hand man over the past four decades.

“If you read his letter against what transpired in the CEC [central executive committee, the party’s second most powerful organ], Mbabazi was offering a sort of truce. He has worked with Museveni for a long time and both men know each other very well. Now, if the delegates’ conference doesn’t heal the rift between them, it will be seen as being aimed to publicly legitimise all that has been happening since February.

“This is likely to result in a protest vote not necessarily against the president, at least not in the interim, but the main drivers of these actions who are mainly the party’s MPs. At a later stage, it would affect the president,” said a top party insider involved with its mobilisation.

READ: Mbabazi’s loud silence disarms friend and foe

This protest vote, as the insider sees it, is likely to be engineered through parliamentary nominations, where the present NRM legislators are up against some fierce competition.

As many as 30 MPs (who include a trickle from the opposition) have already indicated they will not seek re-election. They have not said exactly why, fuelling speculation that they have weighed up their chances to return and found them slim.

In a public poll published by Research World International in May, 59 per cent of respondents disapproved of the performance of MPs; 21 per cent said they were ambivalent.

An increased number of independents would erode the party’s domination of the House. As one senior NRM member complained in the CEC meeting, “The turnover rate of Members of Parliament is too high. Up to 70 per cent never get re-elected.

For this particular parliament, it is likely to be higher because they have been perhaps the poorest we have had in terms of quality of debate. And there aren’t any significant actions they have taken or strong pieces of legislation they have passed.”

A number of MPs have accused Mr Mbabazi of fronting candidates against them both during party primaries, which, according to Minister of State for Regional Affairs Asuman Kiyingi, forced many to run as independents.

READ: Does Mbabazi pose real threat to Museveni?

Sources say the reason it is the MPs who have hounded him and done everything to drive him out of the party is largely to settle scores but also, most importantly, to inoculate themselves against internal competition for the right to bear the party’s flag, giving them a fair chance of re-election.

“The push for Museveni’s sole candidature and the removal of Mr Mbabazi is essentially aimed to protect themselves. In the absence of a powerful secretary general, they can hold Museveni to ransom and demand he repay them for their efforts in blocking out any internal competition against him,” said our source.

Whereas Museveni is likely to endorse their proposals to amend the Constitution and the electoral laws, he is unlikely to fully fund their campaigns as he will have his own to take care of — which, analysts predict, will cost him at least twice more than the last time around.

In any case, increasing reliance on money is fraught with the risk of creating political entrepreneurs instead of building political support. This, the party insider says, weakens Museveni’s control of the political process, a factor that may play in his rival’s favour.

Rosemary Seninde, the NRM Woman MP for Wakiso District chaired a seven-person committee that the party tasked to study challenges from the 2010 primaries and to examine claims that Mr Mbabazi was manipulating party structures to advance his presidential ambitions.

The committee accused Mbabazi of holding on to the party’s present register as if it were his personal property and recommended the preparation of a fresh one. Mr Mbabazi insisted he was only keeping it safe as obliged by the party’s constitution in his role as the political organisation’s chief custodian.

“He handed over some records on Monday but I’m not aware they included members’ register. But even if he hasn’t, the membership of the party is there. So it wouldn’t be difficult to raise a new register and have it displayed for clarity and transparency,” said Ofwono Opondo, the party’s deputy spokesperson.

Preparation of a new alternative register appears to be already underway. The task is reportedly being overseen by Richard Todwong, the NRM MP from Nwoya District and Minister without Portfolio in charge of Political Mobilisation, and directly involves NRM legislators as point persons in their respective constituencies.

Mr Todwong, who leads the party’s Young Turks around whom Museveni is said to be reinventing himself within the NRM, was made de facto secretary general in March at the beginning of the now eight-month-old political drama involving Museveni and Mbabazi. He is expected to maintain this role in spite of the presence of Ms Hyuha, whose support for Museveni was reportedly called into question at the CEC meeting.

According to Dr Patrick Wakida, who leads Research World International, the ruling party is disorganising itself, which will hurt it in the general elections.

“There are roughly 16 months to the elections. If you dismantle the structure that you have been relying on, the one you replace it with will require time to gel. Is that time enough?” Dr Wakida wondered.