Kenya’s headache: Al Shabaab goes, then what?

Prime Minister Raila Odinga, has since denied that Kenya is planning to create a separate enclave of Jubaland, insisting that Kenya is not an occupation force.

Still, there are the self-declared states of Somaliland and Puntland, both in the north. Puntland last week supported the Kenyan military intervention in parts of southern Somalia.

The breakaway region argued that Kenya’s decision to train TFG forces aimed at liberating the Juba Valley has produced tangible results in Gedo region and parts of Lower Juba region.

Mr Abdi is worried that Kenya has not invested enough in setting up local administrations in liberated areas and that those that Kenya are backing may not have popular support.

Currently, there are two militia groups fighting Al Shabaab in southern Somalia. 

One is led by the self-styled leader of Azania state, Prof Muhammad Gandhi and the second is the Ras Kamboni group led by Sheikh Ahmed Madole. Mr Abdi is worried that these two groups could turn against each other once Al Shabaab has been defeated.

Somalia watchers say that it would be better for Kenya to start popularising the 4.5 Clan formula that was developed at the last peace conference in Nairobi in 2004, but which has never been properly implemented. 

The 4.5 formula was meant to gives equal quotas for representation in government to the four major clans, and a half-point to the fifth, the cluster of minority clans.