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IEBC and Jubilee say Kenya poll will go ahead, but will it be credible?

Saturday October 21 2017
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The Kenyan electoral body maintains that the country will be holding a fresh presidential election on October 26, yet almost half of the 19.6 million registered voters, have promised to stay away.

By FRED OLUOCH

The Kenyan electoral body maintains that the country will be holding a fresh presidential election on October 26, yet almost half of the 19.6 million registered voters, have promised to stay away.

The election will involve President Uhuru Kenyatta — whose re-election was nullified on September 1 — and five fringe candidates after his main challenger, Raila Odinga of the National Super Alliance (Nasa), withdrew from the poll. 

This scenario has raised the question of whether the election will be deemed credible even if it meets the constitutional threshold.

According to Article 138 (4) of the presidential election procedure, President Kenyatta only needs to garner 50 plus one of the total votes casts, plus 25 per cent in 24 out of the 47 counties.

Without Mr Odinga taking part in the poll, President Kenyatta is set to meet the threshold but questions remain whether he will gain the necessary legitimacy since two commissioners of the electoral body have come out to say that it is not possible to hold a credible election on October 26.

Nzamba Kitonga, a Nairobi lawyer and a former chairman of the committee of experts that drafted the Constitution, told The EastAfrican that meeting the constitutional threshold is easy for President Kenyatta in the certain circumstances but the main challenge is that there is no universal definition of a credible election.

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“It is all depended on circumstances and situations leading to the election and differs from country to country based on their laws, election practices and the general perception of the public and the international community,” said Mr Kitonga.

In its ruling on September 1, the Supreme Court directed the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) to “organise and conduct a fresh presidential election in strict conformity with the Constitution and the applicable election laws within 60 days of the determination of 1st September 2017 under Article 140(3) of the Constitution.”

This section says; “If the Supreme Court determines the election of the President-elect to be invalid, a fresh election shall be held within 60 days after the determination.”

Thresholds of an election

IEBC chairman, Wafula Chebukati  has said that technical aspects of the elections were ready, such as the standardisation of the election declaration forms printing of ballot papers, reconfiguration of technology to correct what went wrong on August 8 and increase in network coverage for the transmission of results.

But Mr Chebukati conceded that the IEBC commissioners are divided and are pursuing partisan political interests, and he is being derailed in a manner that would ensure no credible elections on October 26.

READ: IEBC chairman says cannot guarantee credible election

Mr Odinga — who pulled out of the race on October 10 — has maintained that certain conditions must be met including: reconstituting the election commission, reprinting ballot papers, and changing of the French biometrics firm, OT-Morpho for any credible election to take place.

The Administration and Cost of Elections (ACE) Electoral Knowledge Network, an online portal on world elections that involves collaboration between eight organisations, says that credible elections must be transparent and the results conclusive enough that observers will be convinced the result accurately reflects the will of the people.

The ACE portal cites, “the right and the opportunity for every citizen to vote and be elected, free from discrimination, security of the person and the right to a timely and effective remedy,” as basic thresholds of an election.

But the October 26 election is facing various challenges that include a boycott by Nasa, the admission by the IEBC that it unable to hold a credible election within the remaining time, and possible violence in Nasa strongholds.

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