Kenyans go to the polls on Tuesday, August 8, to choose their next crop of leaders for various elective posts.

The presidential election is billed as one of the most tightly contested in the country’s electoral history, with the most recent opinion polls showing a 1-3 percentage gap between the incumbent Uhuru Kenyatta of the Jubilee Party and Raila Odinga of the National Super Alliance.

While the cost of living, unemployment, corruption, security and free public services are key issues having an impact on the lives of Kenyans, the ultimate winner will be determined by a motley of factors. The EastAfrican's Peter Munaita lists the top ten.

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1. TRIBALISM OR REGIONALISM

Politicians talk of shunning it, at least until an election comes around...

2. MONEY AND SOURCES

“We cannot support you and give you money for the campaigns”...

3. INCUMBENCY

A network afforded by incumbency would be difficult for an opposition to marshal...

4. 2022 POLITICS

The man within a heartbeat of the presidency is also the man to beat...

5. CAMPAIGN STRATEGY

Jubilee campaign strategy is quite basic — continuity, while that of Nasa is a call for reforms...

6. PERSONALITY AND CHARACTER

Easy-going Kenyatta versus reserved Odinga. Will these personalities influence outcome?...

7. VOTER TURNOUT

Politicians are already coming up with hilarious ways to ensure high voter turnout...

8. DEMOGRAPHICS

The profile of the voter who turns up at the polling station is also important.

IEBC data shows that the youth (18-34 years) comprise 50.64 per cent, men 53 per cent and women 47 per cent.

A candidate’s appeal to the youth who surveys show are more inclined to vote based on issues rather than ethnicity could give an advantage.

That the youth are coming out to express themselves on the ballot is evident in the increased number of contestants falling in this bracket who have been nominated by various political parties to vie for elective positions or are running as independents.

In Nairobi, for instance, a generational change has happened with most of those running for Parliament being below the age of 40.

A Radio Africa survey released last week showed that Nasa candidate Raila Odinga had recovered substantially in the competition for the youth vote with 47 per cent for those aged below 29 years supporting him against President Kenyatta’s 45 per cent.

In the Radio Africa poll released in May, President Kenyatta had 47 per cent of the youth vote against Mr Odinga’s 40 per cent.

However, it showed President Kenyatta winning by more than 50 per cent among the elderly population and women with more men opting for Mr Odinga.

Women present an interesting group given the grassroot campaign that the First Lady Margaret Kenyatta and Mrs Ruto, have been running across the country riding on their programmes on maternal health and table banking.

Mr Odinga’s wife Ida has also been present on the ground. Besides the spouses, the leaders have several lobby groups mobilising the various voter segments.

9. IEBC

Faith in the arbiter can determine the participation and performance of a player, a team or fans...

10. SECURITY AND ELECTION-RELATED VIOLENCE

Odinga’s worry has been that heavy security presence could discourage voters...