Kenyans go to the polls on Tuesday, August 8, to choose their next crop of leaders for various elective posts.

The presidential election is billed as one of the most tightly contested in the country’s electoral history, with the most recent opinion polls showing a 1-3 percentage gap between the incumbent Uhuru Kenyatta of the Jubilee Party and Raila Odinga of the National Super Alliance.

While the cost of living, unemployment, corruption, security and free public services are key issues having an impact on the lives of Kenyans, the ultimate winner will be determined by a motley of factors. The EastAfrican's Peter Munaita lists the top ten.

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1. TRIBALISM OR REGIONALISM

Politicians talk of shunning it, at least until an election comes around...

2. MONEY AND SOURCES

“We cannot support you and give you money for the campaigns”...

3. INCUMBENCY

A network afforded by incumbency would be difficult for an opposition to marshal...

4. 2022 POLITICS

The man within a heartbeat of the presidency is also the man to beat...

5. CAMPAIGN STRATEGY

Jubilee campaign strategy is quite basic — continuity, while that of Nasa is a call for reforms...

6. PERSONALITY AND CHARACTER

Easy-going Kenyatta versus reserved Odinga. Will these personalities influence outcome?...

7. VOTER TURNOUT

Politicians are already coming up with hilarious ways to ensure high voter turnout...

8. DEMOGRAPHICS

A candidate’s appeal to the youth could give an advantage...

9. IEBC

While a referee may not necessarily score a goal, faith in the arbiter can determine the participation and performance of a player, a team or fans.

This explains the 13 per cent who said they would not vote because of lack of confidence in the IEBC and electoral processes in the Ipsos poll of mid-July. In the latest poll, however, confidence in the IEBC to manage the elections has shot up from 50 per cent in January to 61 per cent.

With regard to respondents who said they had at least some confidence in institutions involved in the election, the IEBC is at the top with 85 per cent followed by the Judiciary (82 per cent) and the police (81 per cent).

This bodes well not just for voter turnout but also in its wake should the outcome trigger unrest or a petition in the courts.

More than eight in 10 people in the poll said that they were not aware of anything that would make the election not free and fair.

However, those who had reported breaches cited vote buying and gifts, buying of ID cards and threats and intimidation among the practices that could compromise poll integrity.

They also said bungled political party primaries as well as discrimination during registration may have already tilted the scales in favour of some candidates.

Lack of transparency at IEBC and malfunction of technology were mentioned by four per cent of those who had concerns on poll issues as potential violations of free and fair election practice.

10. SECURITY AND ELECTION-RELATED VIOLENCE

Odinga’s worry has been that heavy security presence could discourage voters.