The decision by South Sudan’s embattled First Vice President Dr Riek Machar to break cover about his whereabouts, and the apparent warming-up by President Salva Kiir to the idea of a regional protection force, is expected to ease tensions in the country.

The recent conflict has caused concern in the region, with analysts warning of huge human and economic costs.

Dr Machar fled Juba on July 11, following clashes between his forces and those of President Kiir.

He remained conspicuously absent and silent until July 27, when he told Al Jazeera TV that he was around Juba. He said he would only return to the capital when the foreign force proposed by the African Union was deployed to the capital.

On July 25, President Kiir met with Festus Mogae, the chair of the Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission (JMEC), to discuss the deployment of the AU-backed battalion. The two had a “productive meeting,” a statement from JMEC said.

JMEC is responsible for supervising the implementation of the peace agreement that President Kiir and Dr Machar signed in August 2015.

On the same day that President Kiir met Mr Mogae, he named Mining Minister Taban Deng Gai as his new vice-president, reportedly because Dr Machar refused to respond to a 48-hour presidential ultimatum to return to Juba. The decision drew condemnation.

President Kiir had met Mr Mogae earlier, on July 23, together with Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni. The South Sudan leader rushed to Kampala as soon as he ensured he had a grip on the situation in Juba.

It is understood that their discussion at State House Entebbe focused mainly on how President Kiir should deal with the decision by the AU to deploy a regional intervention force.   

At the meeting, President Museveni is said to have advised President Kiir to allow the force in, and to negotiate a favourable mandate with them.

President Museveni is keen to see calm return to South Sudan — Uganda’s leading export destination. Authorities in Juba are equally keen on the resumption of trade from Uganda — particularly the supply of food — to avert a growing shortage of supplies in the capital.

“The incident in Juba was unfortunate and of concern to us. But I want to assure the people that the situation is normalising very fast. The level of security is good. We welcome all people who have been doing business to come and resume work,” said John Luk Jok, South Sudan’s Transport Minister, on July 24, when flights between Juba and Entebbe resumed.

The neutral force is widely seen as the only viable solution to the build-up of tensions between Kiir and Machar’s sides before the situation goes totally out of control. But Kiir and power brokers in Juba have been opposed to it because of the worry it is likely to help Machar to regroup following clashes in which he reportedly lost a lot of his elite troops.

President Kiir’s meeting with Mr Mogae led to Dr Machar’s replacement as First Vice President with Taban Deng Gai.
During his interview with Al Jazeera, Dr Machar termed the appointment illegitimate, noting that the peace agreement he signed with President Kiir in April to form the Transitional Government of National Unity (TGNU) did not give him such power — a point the UN had earlier made.

Article 2 of Chapter 7 says, “In the event that the provisions of the Transitional Constitution of South Sudan conflicts with the terms of this Agreement, the terms of this Agreement shall prevail.” Article 3 states, “This Agreement shall take precedence over any national legislation, and in the event that the provisions of a national legislation conflict with the terms of this Agreement, this Agreement shall prevail.”

The Enough Project, an NGO based in Washington, said the fighting was a “potentially destabilising political move” that unnecessarily stokes full-scale war in a country that has suffered more than enough conflicts.

“The anti-peace elements in the Kiir group have made a strong statement that they will never implement this peace agreement,” Adel Sandrai, a nominated SPLM-IO legislator, told The EastAfrican on phone from Juba. 

Even if it were possible to replace Dr Machar, the SPLM-IO section that remained loyal to him argued that Mr Taban was least qualified as a substitute because he ranks low in the opposition group’s hierarchy — at number four.

Mr Taban was SPLM-IO’s chief negotiator in Addis Ababa. He had been expected to guide his side in implementing the peace agreement. But he resigned on April 30, a day after the formation of the transitional government.

The disagreements between President Kiir and Dr Machar have led to suggestions that a neutral leadership should preside over the interim period.

“The agreement can only work if it is amended to reflect the reality that the two will be unable to work together after the recent fighting,” said Cirino Hiteng, a signatory to the agreement, and former assistant minister for foreign affairs.

By Gaaki Kigambo and Fred Oluoch