Intra-NRM violence threatens to spillover

The Supreme Court criticisms of the last two general elections are also well known.

Again, what should be of concern is the fact that those accused of these alleged malpractices are not unknown party functionaries, but some of the party’s supposedly more illustrious names.

The current pressure seems to be coming from a new determination by the NRM to consolidate its vote.

The historical record shows a average decline of roughly 10 per cent per election of the presidential votes (from 75 per cent in 1995, to under 60 per cent at the last election).

Similarly, the opposition has gradually increased its share of parliamentary seats, and narrowed the margin by which an NRM candidate does win.

Some observers see the possibility of a below 50 per cent result for the incumbent in the forthcoming presidential election, thereby forcing a second round of voting between just the top two candidates.

It was recently resolved at an NRM party conference — held in Uganda’s State House of all places — that the party should avoid splitting its vote and would therefore no longer tolerate independent candidates.

Sembabule may be the epitome of the NRM’s crisis of electoral credibility and party unity, however, similar tribulations can be expected in Kampala, parts of Bunyoro, the southwest, and much of eastern Uganda.

Perhaps the most they can do is identify their flashpoints and develop strategies to limit the damage that is going to come.

In the forthcoming elections, it would appear that there will be no opponents, just enemies.

Even in your own camp.