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In Uganda demos will continue but regime will stay

Wednesday April 20 2011
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A Ugandan protester reaches down to pick up a tear gas grenade that police fired at a crowd in Kireka, a Kampala suburb, on April 18, 2011, during demonstrations that broke out after opposition leader Kizza Besigye was arrested in the morning following an attempt to take part in a "walk to work" protest against soaring fuel prices. Photo/AFP

Uganda's failure to tackle popular concerns over rising living costs could see the country rocked by further protests, but the chances of a North African-style revolt remain slim, analysts say.

Four people have died over the past week, according to the Ugandan Red Cross, after opposition demonstrations over rising costs prompted a harsh crackdown by security forces and sparked rioting across the country.

On Monday opposition leader Kizza Besigye vowed further protests after he was arrested for the second time in a week as he attempted to walk to work in Kampala.

He was charged with inciting violence and released on bail.

The arrest of Besigye and around 20 other prominent opposition figures on Monday set off running battles between protesters and the security forces, as the police and army fired tear gas to disperse stone-throwing protesters on the outskirts of Kampala.

"The fact that the opposition is focusing on the issue of prices, which impacts everybody's livelihood, means they have struck a chord with the population," Frederick Golooba-Mutebi, a political scientist at Kampala's Makerere University, told AFP.

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Annual inflation on food rose to almost 30 percent in March, while fuel price inflation rose to over 10 percent, according the Consumer Price Index.

Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni has vowed to crush the protests, dismissing the opposition demonstrations as "idiotic".

The government blames factors beyond its control, such as high international oil prices and recent droughts, for the price rises.

But Golooba-Mutebi said the state's brutal reaction to protests has only served to draw attention to the issue and warned unrest could escalate unless the government focused on dealing with the price hikes rather than just cracking down on the opposition.

"Simply responding to the protests with violence won't solve the issue," Golooba-Mutebi said.

"If they instead focus on dealing with the problem then that should render the protests irrelevant," he said, citing recent reductions in fuel tax in neighbouring Kenya as an innovative way of defusing public ire.

Museveni comfortably beat Besigye in nationwide elections in February and while opposition calls for protests over alleged vote-rigging failed to catch on, analysts said the government was caught "flat-footed" by the current food price demonstrations ahead of an expected cabinet reshuffle next month.

"The response by the government has been a total PR failure," Levi Ochieng, a Kampala-based, independent political analysis, told AFP.

Although the opposition were clearly politicising the price rise issue, Ochieng said the government had failed to reassure the public that they are dealing with the issue amid allegations of unnecessary state spending, including the recent purchase of two fighter jets and plans to spend over a million dollars on Museveni’s inauguration ceremony in May.

Despite criticisms by human rights activists, the government has pledged to continue its clamp down on protests.

It brushed off concerns that Uganda could become the first sub-Saharan African state to face a popular revolution similar to those in Egypt and Tunisia, with Interior Minister Kirunda Kivenjinja disimissing the opposition’s "Tahrir tactics".

"That is what many people may want," Kivenjinja told journalist in Kampala on Tuesday. "But we are not of the same genesis."

Analysts agreed that although in the short-term government mishandling of the situation might lead to renewed clashes, economic necessity would force people to return to work before the protests could spread.

"As it affects the economy, people get tired eventually and it ends up dying down," independent analyst Ochieng said.

"The socio-economic situation in Uganda is completely different and I do not see a long and constant demonstration."

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