ICG bets on a return to peace in war-torn Chad

The Chadian elections scheduled for November provide the biggest opportunity to end the political and military turmoil that has bedevilled the Central African country for the past five years.

According to the latest report by the International Crisis Group — a leading adviser on conflict resolution and prevention — a lull in fighting between government forces and rebel groups, and the easing of tensions with Sudan since the start of this year, is the biggest chance for the return to normalcy.

However, President Idriss Déby’s rigid control of political space and recurrent problems in the electoral process could plunge the country back into turmoil, unless N’Djamena is willing to stick to the roadmap to peace. 

For this to happen, the ICG advises that the Chadian government must take advantage of the moment to bolster relations with Sudan, fully respect its commitment to providing security in eastern Chad per Security Council Resolution 1923 (2010), carry out the internal reforms it has committed itself to and offer lasting peace to the armed opposition.

Both countries are facing rebellions that are proving difficult to tame.

It started with the Darfur conflict in 2003, where the Justice for Equality Movement launched an insurgence against marginalisation, which spilled over to Eastern Chad, where the Union of Resistance Forces launched their offensive against Djamena.

Both Sudan and Chad had traded accusations of sponsoring one another’s rebel groups for years, until the recent warming up of relations.

In May last year, the UFR launched a major attack on government troops in N’Djamena, but failed to overthrow the regime’s military.

After the failed offensive, some influential circles in Khartoum began to doubt the utility of an alliance with the Chadian armed opposition and consider a rapprochement with N’Djamena.

Fearing his military success may only be temporary, President Déby wants to ensure the rebels do not find sanctuary in Sudan to regroup and hopes the rapprochement with Khartoum will reduce their room for manoeuvre.

According to ICG, the January 2010 bilateral agreement and a series of presidential visits — President Déby’s to Khartoum in February and May and his Sudan counterpart Omar al-Bashir’s to N’Djamena in July — give reason to hope that relations are returning to normal.

The ICG recommends few areas which the Chad government can use to stabilise the situation.

One, use oil revenues to equip and motivate the army so that they can defeat the rebels and tilt the balance of power.

This is because the easing of tensions also allows him to reallocate funds from the defence budget to prepare for elections — which have been postponed several times because of the war.

But there are obstacles. Both presidents aim to use the reconciliation to strengthen their power: President Déby vis-à-vis the internal opposition and President al-Bashir with respect to the International Criminal Court.