With the capture of Caesar Acellam, the third in command in the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) on May 12, the tide seems to be turning against the elusive rebel outfit, promising a return to stability in the remote triangle straddling several countries in the Great Lakes Region where it operates.

The brutal Ugandan rebel force remains at large in the jungles of the Central African Republic and northern Democratic Republic of Congo, where Acellam was captured on the banks of the River Mbou in the Central African Republic, as he crossed from DR Congo.

His capture brings to two the number of top commanders of the LRA now in custody since the 2009 arrest of Thomas Kwoyelo — just weeks after the launch of Operation Lightening Thunder by the Uganda People’s Defence Force, to pursue the LRA into DR Congo. 

Uganda’s Ministry of Defence and army spokesman Col Felix Kulayigye described Acellam’s arrest as “big progress” and a blow to the rebel’s organisation and fighting capacity. 

“The arrest of Maj Gen Caesar Acellam is big progress… His capture is definitely going to cause an opinion shift within the LRA,” he said.

Indeed, it should be only a matter of time before the LRA’s fate is sealed, despite the sluggish take-off of the Regional Task Force formed under the auspices of the African Union to hunt down the rebels and their fugitive warlord Joseph Kony.

First, there is information from former LRA fighters that Kony has become “increasingly unstable,” and that even though the LRA has food, it cannot fight decisive battles because of lack of logistical support.

Of more significance, however, is that the rebels are wary of being tracked and captured by Uganda People Defence Forces troops using intelligence that is provided by the 100 US Special Forces troops deployed by President Barack Obama.

(Read: Obama wants bounty on head of ‘madman’ Joseph Kony)
The Regional Task Force should have been operational at the end of March this year, with 5,000 troops from Uganda, South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo and the Central African Republic, aided by US intelligence with a mission to arrest Kony, who is wanted along with four of his top commanders by the International Criminal Court for war crimes and crimes against humanity since 2005.

But the force, which was supposed to deploy immediately, has been hampered by a number of problems. First, the conflict between the two Sudans has implications for the South’s capacity to release its soldiers. Then there is the issue of mistrust between Uganda and DR Congo leading to their failure to realise the force’s target size of 5,000 troops. 

(Read: South Sudan and Khartoum have many unresolved issues)
“The Regional Task Force has not yet been established,” said Ashley Benner, policy analyst at the Washington DC-based Enough Project, which has tracked and documented some of LRA’s crimes. 

“There are a number of unresolved issues stalling its formation and full scale operationalisation, including the availability of troops, where funding will come from, how the forces from the four countries will be commanded and work together, the insufficient capabilities of the national armies, and the distrust and lack of collaboration among the regional governments,” she added.

Against these odds, it remains to be seen if UPDF can go it alone, considering its successes in capturing two top commanders as well as having many LRA rank and file surrender in the space of three years since its first foray into DR Congo’s Garamba National Park in 2009.

The government of Uganda has come under pressure to seek regional support to capture Kony and end the LRA’s criminal activities, and the RTF overall commander Col Dick Olum is optimistic that the regional force will accomplish its mission.

“With the number of troops expected to make up the force, we shall saturate the area and secure the women and children, then target their keepers… the first six months will define how the mission goes on,” said Col Olum last month at the force’s Yambio headquarters in South Sudan.

The LRA unleashed terror in northern Uganda and South Sudan for the best part of two decades, and in recent years has been accused of plunder and abductions of civilians in the DR Congo and Central African Republic.

Col Kulayigye said Kampala is ready to deploy 1,500 troops as soon as the AU gives the signal.

But field researchers in the operation areas reveal that Uganda’s force is as few as 800 troops. Even in the event that Uganda deploys the full force pledged, it is unclear where the remaining 3,500 men would come from, considering that South Sudan now has an undeclared but real war with Khartoum.

In a recent interview, however, David Amuor Majur, a member of the Sudan Peoples Liberation Movement argued that his country is equipped to handle the war with Khartoum as well as engage in an offensive against the LRA.

“This war will not affect our contribution to the regional effort,” he said. “This is a matter of regional stability and we will deal with it as a region. Besides, we as South Sudan don’t have just one force focusing only on war with Sudan.”

Indeed, Juba has a force of about half a million ex-combatants, whom it has been struggling to demobilise and integrate. It can tap into this reserve for the RTF.

Recently, President Salva Kiir issued a call to arms, urging those with guns to keep them and promising, that those without would be armed.

It is understood however, that the other countries are yet to confirm availability of troops towards the RTF. Disagreements between Uganda and Congo threaten the RTF, arising from the late 1990s plunder case at the International Court of Justice against Ugandan troops by Congo, for which Kampala was handed a $10 billion reparations fine.

“An impasse between the Congolese and Ugandan governments has greatly limited the military campaign against the LRA in Congo. It has been six months since the Congo government asked the Ugandan army to stop all operations there in pursuit of LRA. And with the recent increase in LRA attacks in Congo, we are seeing it become a de facto safe haven for the group,” said Ms Benner.