Like modern-day religious prophets proclaiming the imminent end of the world, scientists have been predicting doom if man continues polluting the earth; but only a few countries in the developed and the developing world have taken the apocalyptic warnings of global warming seriously.

However, a recent study by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) that the earth experienced unprecedented climate extremes during the 2001-2010 decade should be a wake-up call for all, East Africans included.

WMO says in its analysis released this month that the first 10 years of the 21st century were the world’s hottest since records began to be taken.

Rising concentrations of heat-trapping greenhouse gases are changing the climate, with far-reaching implications for the environment and oceans, which are absorbing both carbon dioxide and heat, said Michel Jarraud, secretary-general at WMO. In East Africa, the extreme conditions manifested themselves in the form of severe droughts and raging floods.

Sample this: In 2002, severe flooding occurred in Tanzania, Kenya and Uganda, with some locations recording their wettest conditions since 1961. In 2005, tables turned with drought conditions taking over the region and parts of Central Africa and eastern Australia. In 2006, things changed yet again, with most parts of the continent recording wetter-than-normal conditions. In 2010, dry conditions developed during the later months in parts of East Africa, particularly in equatorial regions of Kenya and Tanzania.

READ: Food security fears as farmlands hit by flooding

Kenya Meteorological Department deputy director Peter Ambeje is not surprised at the changing weather patterns.

“The information from WMO shows that it will not be business as usual for East Africa and other parts of the world; the earlier we realise it the better,” said Mr Ambeje.

Indeed, it will not be business as usual, since droughts and floods strongly affect the socio-economic conditions of the region, which is still struggling to feed its growing population.

“It leads to severe consequences for agriculture, food supply and employment,” says WMO in its latest study.

Though ignored by many, evidence of climate change already exists. Studies done by the Kenya Meteorological Department show extreme and harsh weather is now the norm rather than the exception.

Since the early 1960s, both minimum (night) and maximum (day) temperatures have been rising. The minimum temperature, for example, has risen by between 0.7 and 2 degrees centigrade and the maximum by between 0.2 and 1.3 degrees centigrade depending on the season and the region.

The climatic changes have had an adverse impact on the country’s socio-economic sectors, both during the rainy and dry seasons.

“The current projections indicate that such impacts will only worsen in the future if the world does not implement measures that result in deep cuts in the anthropogenic greenhouse-gas emissions responsible for climate change,” says Mutie Nzau, a Kenya government economist, in a publication, Mainstreaming Climate Change to Development Planning.

Naturally, East Africa has two rainy seasons — the short one extending from October to December and the long one beginning March and ending in June. Whenever the rains fail, it is agriculture and energy sectors that suffer the most.

In all the years in question, the region recorded a decline in the production of staple foods, forcing some of the member states to appeal for international aid.

Poor rains always spell higher prices for staple foods triggering weather-driven food inflation, which acts a drag on economic growth.

WMO says that during the current decade, severe and prolonged droughts were recorded in the Greater Horn of Africa (made up of Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and Tanzania).

READ: Millions in Eastern Africa face starvation

In 2004 and 2005, for example, southern Somalia, eastern Kenya, southeastern Ethiopia, northeastern Tanzania and Djibouti recorded below-normal precipitation in both rainy seasons, resulting in a multi-season drought.

The drought was so severe that over 11 million people in Ethiopia, Djibouti, Somalia and Kenya were at risk of starvation. In addition, most parts of the region were thrown into darkness as water levels in hydropower plants fell, making production of cheap energy difficult.

Double mean sea levels

During the period under study, WMO says global mean sea levels rose about 3mm per year, which is almost double the observed 20th century trend of 1.6mm per year.

Even more worrying is that the high temperatures in the decade were achieved without a strong episode of the El Nino.  A strong El Nino episode would probably have driven temperatures even higher.

“We will continue experiencing similar situations in future. Extreme weather is now part and parcel of our lives and Africa will be the one of the most affected continents,” adds Mr Ambeje.

From storms to floods to drought to fires, the global climate seems to be crashing around us. This is because humanity has continued to pump greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, trapping the heat that flows in from the sun and raising global temperatures.

Despite the magnitude of the problem, world leaders are yet to come up with a concrete solution on how to effectively handle global warming as short-term economic benefits continue to override the long-term ones, associated with sustainable development.

To make matters worse, accusations and counteraccusations on who is responsible for the mess have overshadowed genuine efforts to tackle the problem.

READ: (Opinion) Doha was a weirdly tame and dispirited climate talks attempt

And as the world leaders continue to grope in the dark on how to effectively handle global warming, agriculture will continue to be the biggest loser, the Kenya Agricultural Research Institute (KARI) director Ephraim Mukisira warns.

“If we do not have proper measures in place, we will start recording major deficits in food production and  it will be difficult to feed our increasing population,” says Dr Mukisira.

The sector is the mainstay of all the five East African countries and depends mainly on the rainy seasons.

The KARI director says export earnings from the agricultural sector will also be affected with the decline in productivity.

“This will have a devastating effect on the  economies of the countries, mainly their capacity to create jobs  and improve the  welfare of the population,” adds Dr Mukisira.

Signs of decline are already already there. Whenever there are droughts or floods in the region, the production of both food and cash crops declines.

Global warming has created a conducive environment for pests and diseases to thrive, reducing crop yields even further. Currently, East African governments are grappling with maize streak virus and maize necrosis that have destroyed acres of farmland under the crop in the region.

READ: EA scientists fighting maize disease

Kenya has already sounded the alarm, saying that maize  yields this year will decline because of the two diseases.

“Plant diseases and pests will increase as temperatures rise. It is a problem East African governments will have to confront in their efforts to increase food production,” adds KARI director.

According to Joseph Ndunguru, officer in charge of Tanzania’s Mikocheni Agricultural Research Institute, scientists were developing drought-resistant crops because Tanzania was experiencing unpredictable weather. He said the scientists had developed paddy that can grow in dry conditions, in a move to reduce dependency on rain-fed agriculture.

Apart from the food production challenges, East African governments will have to deal with the burden of tropical diseases.

The increase in cases of highland malaria, also associated with global warming, is  already worrying the East African governments as they will be forced to spend more on prevention and treatment of tropical diseases.

“Global warming has created a favourable environment for mosquitoes to survive in areas which were initially free of the insect,” says Mr Ambeje.

The warmest year ever recorded was 2010 followed closely by 2005.

All told, combating climate change will require a concerted effort by both the rich and poor countries, if the apocalypse is to be nipped in the bud.