East African countries risk an Ebola outbreak unless they strengthen screening services at the airports, border posts and do follow-ups on all passengers arriving from West Africa after screening, medical experts in the region have warned. The warning comes shortly after a new report by the World Bank group that classified Kenya among the 19 countries that could report an Ebola case in the next 30 days, even if the outbreak in West Africa is contained.

Reports indicate that key border towns like Busia, Malaba, Isebania and Namanga lack facilities to quarantine and treat patients who cross into the country with Ebola-like symptoms and patients are not thoroughly screened for Ebola.

“If cases of the deadly disease are mishandled or not diagnosed early in Kenya, for example, then the other East African nations are also endangered,” said Anthony Mbonye, Uganda’s Commissioner of Health Services “Kenya faces greater risk as it’s the major gateway to West Africa and East African trading blocs.”

He said that it is very important to ensure screening at all the border points and airports and do a follow up on passengers coming from West Africa for 21 days (the Ebola incubation period) before declaring them safe.

“This is what most health authorities in our countries are missing to do,” said Prof Mbonye. “Unless a follow up is done there is a big risk of an outbreak.”

The weak public health infrastructure, institutions and systems in the East African countries and Africa as a whole, Prof Mbonye said are a major challenge.

“The successful containment of Ebola in Nigeria and Senegal so far is evidence that there is an existing health system capacity and a resolute policy response, which is what most countries should emulate,” added Prof Mbonye.

Last week, a female passenger from South Sudan died at Kenya’s Jomo Kenyatta International Airport on arrival from Juba. She, however, tested was confirmed tested negative for Ebola, said Cabinet Secretary for Health James Macharia.

Health professionals in the country have questioned Kenya’s preparedness to handle an Ebola outbreak after it was reported that the doctors at the airport ran away when the patient started bleeding.

“The medical team panicked this being the first serious case presenting Ebola-like symptoms at the airport,” said Victor Ofula at Kenya Medical Research Institute ( Hemorrhagic Fever Laboratory.

According to Dr Ofula, the patient’s case was an acute case since she had been bleeding for three days as reported and therefore the Ebola tests were done at Kemriand the results, which turned out negative, were released within five hours. “But if the symptoms had presented beyond four days, the tests could have taken longer, about 10 hours,” he added.

He said that even though Kenya stepped up its contingency plan for Ebola preparedness and response with the training of health workers and medical personnel, more needs to be done on the clinical management front. So far, he said Kemri has tested close to 30 Ebola cases which have all turned out negative.

All the other four East African countries and Ethiopia rely on Kemri to conduct Ebola virus tests.

A World Bank report released a week ago shows Kenya has a five per cent chance of having to deal with the disease in the next one month if the three worst-affected West African countries fail to contain its spread. The researchers estimate that if the West African epidemic is brought under control, Kenya is likely to report only one Ebola case in the next 30 days.

The others countries at risk are South Africa, the US, the United Kingdom, Belgium, France and Germany, all exposed because of commercial links with the Ebola hotspots. The rest of the countries in the list are located in West and North Africa, exposed because of their proximity to the affected countries.

Like Kenya, South Africa has a one-in-100 chance of reporting an Ebola case in the next 30 days even if the disease is properly contained in West Africa, but with two cases likely to be reported over the period.

The country’s exposure worsens to nine in 100 chances, with a possibility of 46 cases, if the disease gets out of hand in West Africa.

The World Health Organization report shows death toll from the Ebola virus outbreak has risen to 4,447, with the large majority of victims in West Africa. It estimates that there could be up to 10,000 new cases a week within two months if efforts were not stepped up.

For the past four weeks, about 1,000 new infections a week — including suspected, confirmed and probable cases — have come to light. WHO’s latest projections suggesting the infection rate could reach between 5,000 and 10,000 new cases a week within two months if global efforts to combat the spread of infection were not stepped up.

There have been 8,914 cases overall, including the fatal cases, and the WHO says it expects this number to top 9,000 by the end of the week.

The UN Mission for Ebola Emergency Response set up to coordinate the fight against the disease has set targets to isolate 70 per cent of suspected cases in West Africa and safely bury 70 per cent of the dead within the next 60 days – described as the 70-70-60 plan.

The World Bank Group says that the economic impacts of Ebola are already very serious in the core three countries – particularly Liberia and Sierra Leone – and could become catastrophic under a slow-containment.