The evacuation of foreigners from South Sudan could lead to more bloodshed between warring parties unless immediate interventions are put in place, security sources in Kampala have said.

In a three-phased exercise that ran between July 14 and 19, a joint operation by the Uganda People’s Defence Forces (UPDF) and the police led to the return of some 20,000 Ugandans, more than 500 Kenyans, and 12 from other nationalities.

The majority were removed from Juba, the centre of the most recent clashes. The UN refugee agency reported that more than 26,000 people fled South Sudan into Uganda.

“We have been told openly that whoever wants peace in South Sudan should let the war go on. Something is boiling and it could erupt,” said a Ugandan electrician who had worked for five years in Juba.

“There is a mass exodus. No one wants to be left there. Even the locals don’t want to remain. Everyone appears to be looking for somewhere to go. Some people even openly say what is going to happen once this is over,” said a Kenyan security instructor who had also spent five years working in Juba. 

READ: Ugandan army evacuating citizens from South Sudan

Both men say when the last conflict broke out on December 15, 2013, they did not leave the capital because the fighting was 200km away in Bor, Malakal and Bentiu.

Ugandan security officials who oversaw the evacuation share in these concerns, but say Uganda cannot overstep its evacuation mandate that tentatively ended on July 19, pending further orders from Kampala.

“Until Uganda is called upon, we shall not go in. This is purely an evacuation mission and we will not do more than that,” said Brig Leopold Kyanda, the chief of staff of the land forces in the UPDF. Brig Kyanda jointly supervised the evacuation with Asuman Mugenyi, the director of operations in the police.

“The government will consider any requests to intervene at the appropriate time. But as a neighbour who has invested in South Sudan, we are more concerned about what happens afterwards,” said Lt Col Paddy Ankunda, the army spokesperson.

Two ethnic groups, the Dinka and the Nuer, dominate the political space of South Sudan’s 64 tribes. President Salva Kiir is from the Dinka tribe and First Vice President Riek Machar is from the Nuer tribe.

Dr Machar has rejected an ultimatum to return to Juba within 48 hours, which was issued by President Kiir on Thursday.

The spokesman for Dr Machar, James Gatdet Dak, said his boss would not land in Juba before the deployment of the third force from the regional Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (Igad).

“The First Vice-President will return to Juba once a third force is deployed. President Salva Kiir’s 48 hours ultimatum is unnecessary,” Mr Dak said.

Peacekeeping force

At the summit held in Kigali last week, the AU approved a plan to send a peacekeeping force into South Sudan to protect people caught up in the conflict and to create conditions for the opposing sides to discuss their differences.

However, President Kiir’s government opposed the idea, saying that additional foreign troops will only worsen the problem.

Sources suggest that power brokers in Juba are concerned that an intervention force is likely to place power in the hands of First Vice President Machar.

Other reports indicate that Dr Machar lost many of his best soldiers in the clashes that began on July 7. Forces loyal to President Kiir are reportedly in pursuit of those loyal to Dr Machar in spite of a ceasefire that the president declared on July 11.

Dr Machar, whose whereabouts remain unknown since he fled Juba, declared support for the deployment “to restore peace, security and civility to the capital, to protect civilians and the country’s leadership.”

The decision, however, rests with the UN Security Council, which had not released a statement on the matter by press time.

At the conclusion of its 27th Summit in Kigali on July 20, the AU asked the Security Council to change the mandate of its current 12,500-strong United Nations Mission in South Sudan from peacekeeping to peace enforcement.

The new task would be shouldered by a special brigade comprising troops from South Sudan’s neighbours Ethiopia, Rwanda, Sudan and Uganda.

Four days after conflict broke out in Juba on December 15, 2013, the Ugandan army deployed troops to South Sudan on President Kiir’s invitation. They cut off the march of a 50,000 armed Nuer youth who had planned to attack Juba.  

Whereas the UPDF were first credited for controlling the level of violence, they were later accused of prolonging the crisis by propping up President Kiir’s government.