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Crisis is far from over for country and Nkurunziza

Saturday May 16 2015
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Forces loyal to government crush coup, but Burundi must deal with monumental problems or risk a plunge into civil war. TEA GRAPHIC | NATION MEDIA GROUP

Burundi’s President Pierre Nkurunziza addressed the nation a day after forces loyal to him crushed a coup attempt but the situation in the country remains fragile with multiple crises needing to be resolved.

“I call on Burundians to keep calm as the country is now peaceful and prepare for the upcoming elections,” said President Nkurunziza from his home town of Ngozi in northern Burundi, his usually confident mien having deserted him.

He went on to accuse the coup plotters of collaborating with the protesters and a Democratic Republic of Congo-based rebel group that killed 100 people in Cibitoke, a remote village in northwestern Burundi, to remove him from power.

“The putschists have collaborated with the protesters and the rebel group that attacked Cibitoke from DRC last year,” the president said in his first public appearance since the coup bid. “They are all organised and have the same agenda with the current group of people (the coup plotters).”

READ: New rebel group attacks Burundi

Prolonged strife

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Civil society and humanitarian groups however warned that the ingredients for prolonged strife — a divided army, mass discontent over President Nkurunziza’s third term bid and uncertainty over the election date — threaten the stability of a country that has only enjoyed a decade of peace after a brutal 13-year civil war.

“There is a very high risk of going back to civil war because the ruling party’s dreaded Imbonerakure youth militia is hunting down those who led the protests,” said Pacifique Nininahazwe, the chairman of the Forum for Development and Consciousness (Focode), who helped to organise the Bujumbura protests.    

While the arrest of the coup plotters on Friday signalled the end of two days of turmoil in the capital city, it also marked the beginning of challenging times for President Nkurunziza and the Burundian people.

“Now President Nkurunziza knows it is not easy for him to run for a third term,” said Mr Ninahazwe, who was in hiding. Other activists and protest leaders have also gone into hiding for fear of reprisals after some of the coup leaders were arrested.

More emboldened

By emerging victorious in a bitterly fought battle pitting rival factions in his own army, analysts said, President Nkurunziza could be even more emboldened to consolidate his grip on power and to push through his disputed bid for a third term in office.

In an interview in Ngozi, the head of state termed his “win” a lesson to all, including the “international community,” and asked Burundians to prepare for elections, which are scheduled for next month despite international pressure to postpone them.

The broadcast was recorded and not live as initially presented.

Failure to postpone the polls would put President Nkurunziza on a collision course with the African Union, the EAC, the EU and the US, who are calling for a delay in the polls until the situation in the country is calm. 

READ: AU urges Burundi to postpone elections

ALSO READ: EAC threatens to suspend Burundi as rivals battle to control the capital

“Currently, the environment in Burundi is not conducive for free and fair elections,” said David Martin, a EU electoral chief observer. “We don’t care who wins but we care how they win.”

The president’s supporters have also given all indications that elections will take place as planned, even as key European donors — Belgium, the Netherlands and Switzerland — suspended vital funding for the polls.

There is widespread discontent in Burundi and the prospects of people going back to the streets to protest against the president’s third term bid remain high.

Civil society activists, many of whom supported the shortlived military intervention, say they will not back down until the president steps down. Human Rights Watch said many activists and journalists had gone into hiding fearing for their safety. 

On Thursday, forces loyal to the president attacked the country’s four most popular media outlets, plunging the country into a media blackout.

The media in Burundi has been under intense pressure from authorities in the past few years and activists fear that the government will not give space to a free media because of their presumed support for the coup.

More than 100,000 Burundians are seeking asylum in neighbouring DRC, Tanzania, Rwanda and Uganda because of the political uncertainty in their country.

The botched coup has also sharply divided the military, which coup leader Gen Godefroid Niyombare reportedly spent years turning into a professional army from a rebel militia group.

Republican army

While some of the putschists voluntarily laid down arms, Dr Yolande Bouka, a security expert at the Institute of Security Studies in Nairobi, says some elements in the military still “believe that as a republican army they must protect the integrity of the Constitution.”

While the Arusha Peace Accord brought stability by ensuring that the military would not be dominated by any one tribe and that there was a 50-50 representation of minority Tutsis and majority Hutu, the coup could have renewed old rivalries between the two ethnic groups, even though the coup was staged by a Hutu general.

10 crises Nkurunziza still faces

  • Divided army
  • Agitated masses
  • Uncertain election
  • Humanitarian crisis
  • Restless neighbours
  • Concerned international community
  • Collapsing economy
  • Threat from militias
  • Discredited courts
  • Private media and civil society under attack
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