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Burundi faces further sanctions over poll crisis

Saturday July 04 2015
EABurundiParty

President Pierre Nkurunziza’s supporters at a campaign rally on June 26, 2015. AFP PHOTO | LANDRY NSHIMIYE

Burundi faces diplomatic isolation following the apparent victory of President Pierre Nkurunziza’s CNDD-FDD party in Monday’s controversial elections.

The United Nations, African Union, European Union and the United States have dismissed the elections as neither free nor credible.

On Thursday, the US State Department announced suspension of several security assistance programmes because of Bujumbura’s unwillingness to “engage in good faith efforts to negotiate a solution” in response to “the abuses committed by members of the police during political protests.”

“Due to Burundian government’s disregard for the Arusha Agreement and its decision to proceed with flawed parliamentary elections, the United States is unable to conduct peacekeeping and other training in Burundi,” said John Kirby, the US State Department spokesperson.

Additionally, the US said it will review Burundi’s eligibility for trade preferences under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) because of the country’s “lack of respect for the rule of law.”

READ: US cuts links to Burundi forces, threatens more sanctions

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The suspension of Agoa could see Burundi lose $4 million worth of foreign exchange from the US annually.

Monday’s elections were marred by running battles between protesters and the police resulting in the death of 20 people and several injured.

“Sanctions have already been affecting the Burundian government,” said Archie Henry, a regional analyst based in Kigali. “But as the recent weeks have shown, this has not deterred President Nkurunziza and his ruling party from going ahead as planned and running for a third term.”

If the president is sworn in for a third time, Mr Henry says, this will increase the isolation of the Burundian government in the international arena with more sanctions coming into effect.

By Friday, the electoral commission had yet to announce the parliamentary election results but the opposition parties announced that they would not recognise the new members of parliament.

READ: Burundi poll agency claims high voter turn out, results out this week

A preliminary statement from UN elections observers said the electoral process took place “in a tense political crisis.”

“Fundamental freedoms of participation, assembly, expression, opinion and information have suffered increasing restrictions during the campaign period and as election day drew nearer,” the United Nations Electoral Observation Mission in Burundi (Menub) said in a statement. International isolation could hurt the economy of Burundi, whose 52 per cent of the just under $1 billion budget is donor-funded.

Some key European donors, who contribute a significant chunk of the country’s $520 million annual aid money, had already withdrawn support and had threatened further action if the president was to be re-elected.

At home, East African Community leaders, with the exception of Rwanda, have refrained from making any statements against the president – suggesting that Nkurunziza could still enjoy the region’s support.

Another summit has been planned for Monday July 6 by East African Community leaders in attempts to find a solution to the crisis ahead of the July 15 presidential election. But there is a lot of scepticism on the ability of the regional bloc to resolve the crisis.

Unlike the AU, which has taken a tough stance against Nkurunziza, the EAC has sat on the fence throughout Burundi’s electoral crisis.

It is, therefore highly likely that the president will be embraced by the organisation when he is re-elected.

But as Western sanctions continue to bite, Burundi’s economy will contract further, and with aid cuts, the government will barely be able to raise money from the domestic market to plug the current account deficit which stands at just over $250 million.

The government will be forced to either raise taxes or dig deep into its $300 million foreign reserve to fund its donor-supported budget, driving interest rates up and cutting down on consumption as the cost of living skyrockets.

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