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Vircoulon: Current Burundi crisis has reawakened political, ethnic divisions of the past

Saturday October 24 2015
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Thierry Vircoulon, Central Africa director for the International Crisis Group. PHOTO | COURTESY

The central Africa director for the International Crisis Group, Thierry Vircoulon, spoke to The EastAfrican's Trevor Analo on what the international community and the region need to do to resolve Burundi’s political crisis, including the diplomatic tensions between Kigali and Bujumbura and what the recent military defections mean.

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Burundi’s crisis is now in its sixth month. Key opposition leaders have fled, thousands have been displaced and hundreds killed and injured. What is the way out of this crisis?

The only way out of this is dialogue between the government and the opposition is to be mediated by an international actor. The present political and security impasse is a strong and disturbing reminder of what happened in the past and led to the civil war. It’s as if some people in Burundi were ready to repeat a tragic history.

Does the East African Community have the capacity to manage such a crisis?

The problem is not capacity but political consensus. The EAC is divided over the Burundian crisis. Kigali and Dar es Salam have opposite views, while the other member states do not care enough about the crisis.

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Regional and continental African organisations have the mandate to manage this sort of crisis but they do not have the consensus to do so. That’s the main weakness of the African Peace and Security Architecture — it can only work in times of consensus and consensus is lacking.

President Pierre Nkurunziza’s government has been on the diplomatic offensive lately, reportedly winning the support of Beijing and Moscow. Will this complicate efforts to resolve the crisis? And do you think sanctions are going to work in this context?

Russia, like China, is instrumental in blocking action in the United Nations Security Council. There have been several UNSC open and closed-door sessions dedicated to the Burundian situation but there was no decision because of a divided UNSC.

Targeted sanctions will not work, but suspension of aid will because it will increase the government’s budget problem. But only a responsible and reasonable government will understand this type of pressure.

The president recently signed a decree establishing an internally led dialogue process that will include both sides. How will this work since key opposition leaders have fled the country?

I don’t have the feeling that there are ongoing efforts to bring the opposing parties together at the moment and the opposition in exile do not intend to participate in talks that are managed by the government.

The military, which has been instrumental in holding the country together since the civil war ended in 2005, is facing defections and there are rumours of divisions. What, in your view, is fuelling divisions in the army?

Before the crisis, the army was integrated but not united. So the political and ethnic cleavages that existed before are being exacerbated by this crisis. The old guard do not trust the current regime, who in turn do not trust the old guard.

The political balance in the army leadership is being modified in favour of the ruling party and soldiers from the old guard have been arrested. The murder of one of the symbols of the military’s old guard was regarded as retaliation for the murder of General Adolphe Nshimirimana, a right-hand man of the president. The power-sharing system in the army was a security guarantee for the Tutsi community. If it ends, the Tutsi community will feel defenceless.

What is likely to happen in the event of a split?

Two things will happen: Either there will be a coup attempt or some soldiers will defect and join the rebel groups.

Relations between Rwanda and Burundi have been deteriorating. What seems to be the underlying issue here?

The relations between Kigali and Bujumbura keep deteriorating and they accuse each other of the same thing — supporting their opponents.

The Rwandan government is quite concerned by the fact that President Nkurunziza’s regime is distancing itself from the Arusha Agreement, which was the building block for the protection and accommodation of the Tutsi community in the country.

Rwanda recently asked the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR) to “refrain from its bad habit” of making decisions unilaterally on the diplomatic spat between Kigali and Bujumbura. Can the ICGLR be an objective broker?

The ICGLR cannot play a meaningful role because despite being located in Bujumbura, it waited a long time before trying to get involved in this crisis.

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