By FRED OLUOCH

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Commanders of the African peacekeeping force in Somalia say withdrawal of their troops would be premature, citing rising attacks by the militant group Al Shabaab and a fragile political environment in Mogadishu.

Assaults on Ugandan peacekeepers this month lay bare the challenge still facing the mission that deployed in 2007 as Al Shabaab stepped up its violence.

Since October, Somalia has suffered its deadliest attacks in three decades of civil war, debate in the Parliament threatened to turn violent and the federal and regional governments remained at loggerheads.

At a recent meeting of commanders of the five troop contributing countries (TCCs) in Mogadishu, concerns were raised on the UN-sanctioned phased drawdown of the foreign troops.

The commanders said that withdrawal could negate the gains the peacekeepers have racked up in the past 11 years.

The African Union Mission in Somalia (Amisom) is supposed to withdraw its 21,000 troops by 2020, the very time that Somalia will be conducting a one-person-one-vote election, an exercise that calls for more security.

A lot of work to be done

Amisom force commander, Lt-Gen Jim Owoyesigire, indicated at the meeting that there remained a lot of work to be done to win the hearts of the population and secure the supply routes, both of which require more funding and equipment.

“If the transition plan is to be realistic without losing our hard-earned gains, Amisom needs to be urgently supported with force multipliers such as attack and utility helicopters to conduct preemptive operations against Al Shabaab,” he said.

He said that to succeed against Al Shabaab who still control 20 per cent of rural Somalia, Amisom needs vehicle-borne improvised explosive device technology on the main supply routes and civilian-military cooperation activities to promote relationships that can help Amisom win the hearts and minds of the population.

UN resolution 2372

The commanders evaluated the status of the implementation of the plan, which includes launching operations to flush out Al Shabaab remnants and building the capacity of the Somali security forces, to enable them take over the security of the country, as stipulated in the country’s National Security Architecture that was agreed upon by political leaders in April 2017.

“There is a need to continually discuss in detail how ready Amisom is in terms of manpower and logistics in executing these tasks (training and operations) in the sectors, and taking into consideration the operational readiness and strength of Somali security forces to support these tasks,” said Gen Owoyesigire.

The UN Security Council Resolution 2372 issued last year requires Amisom to reduce its uniformed personnel by 1,040 from all the five TCCs to a maximum 21,626, down from the previous 22,126 troops due to reduced and irregular funding.

Simon Mulongo, the African Union Deputy Special Representative for Somalia, said at the meeting that the first phase of the transition plan would last four years and success would be measured against the ability of the country to conduct peaceful and secure elections in 2020.

The first withdrawal of 1,040 started in December 2017 and a further reduction of similar number is set for October this year. A full pullout is set for 2020.

Somalia forces

Amisom spokesperson, Col Richard Omwega said that the peacekeepers will abide by the UN Security Council resolution, but added that the drawdown must be realistic and leave Somalia forces in a position to manage their own affairs.

“Amisom must obey the UN resolution. But we have to ask ourselves whether we have achieved what brought us to Somalia, which is protecting the population, open up supply routes and support the government of Somalia to become self-reliant in terms of security,” said Col Omwega.

He said the increased attacks by Al Shabaab cannot stop the withdrawal programme which can only be reviewed only if UN experts go to the ground and recommend that it is not feasible at this time.

The US, which is a major financial and logistic supporter of Amisom, opposes further withdrawal beyond the 1,040 withdrawn last December, citing increased security threats in Somalia.

In March, Kenya’s Cabinet Secretary for Foreign Affairs and International Trade Dr Monica Juma, said that the TCCs and the Somalia government planned to petition the UN Security Council to reconsider the resolution on drawing down the Amisom.

Dr Juma said that instead of the drawdown, the UN should instead work on the restoration of the previous troop levels and stay any further reduction to allow recovery of territory still under control of Al Shabaab and other terrorist groups.

Amisom was required to train and equip at least 30,000 Somalia National Army troops before the final withdrawal in 2020, but so far only 10,000 have been proved capable of undertaking serious security operations.

The first batch of withdrawal was done on pro rata basis, with Uganda with the highest number of troops (6,223) withdrawing 250, followed by Burundi’s 5,432 troops which released 217.

Ethiopia with 4,395 troops shed off 176, Kenya’s 3,664 released 146 and Djibouti with the least number of 1,000 troops released 40.