Africa’s top intelligence chiefs’ ended their week-long meeting in Nairobi with an upbeat assessment of the war on terror, citing major gains against Al Shabaab in East Africa, the LRA in Central Africa and the successful campaign to push Al Qaeda in the Maghreb (AQIM) from northern Mali.

But participants at the African Union’s Committee of Intelligence and Security Services of Africa (CISSA) meeting, which brought together more than 40 top spy chiefs from around the continent, remained cautiously optimistic about the continent’s war on violent extremism following the rapid rise of the Islamic State, formerly known as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS).

Fresh fears were raised over the influence of the Islamic State on Jihadist movements in Africa.

While cautioning that though a number of active militant groups have beaten a retreat and are mainly on the defensive, the threat level in West Africa, as well as the Maghreb and Sahel regions, remains potentially explosive.

On Thursday, the UN Security Council issued a statement reiterating its concern over the deteriorating security situation in the Sahel.

An AU-led initiative has seen the region’s intelligence chiefs meet twice a month to share information.

Although the threat level in East Africa had been extremely serious, intelligence experts at the meeting thought the joint campaign by Amisom and Kenyan forces that drove Al Shabaab from Mogadishu and Kismayu, has stabilised the region. The majority of attacks in 2013 occurred in just a few countries, according to the Global Terrorism Database compiled by START.

Nigeria had the most attacks last year, totalling 341 with 2003 fatalities, followed by Somalia with 331 and 641 fatalities and Egypt, which suffered 315 attacks and 243 fatalities.

Kenya, which is leading the war on terror in East Africa, suffered 80 attacks last year with more than 100 fatalities.

Zimbabwe’s Director of External Intelligence Andrew Muzozini, who also chairs CISSA’s Panel of Experts, portrayed the rise of the Islamic State, which analysts say could eclipse its erstwhile ally Al Qaeda, as posing the greatest threat to the world since the September 11, 2001 attack on the