Afewerki comes to Kampala to mend fences, but still has stake in Somalia

Long accused of aiding and abetting the Al Shabaab insurgency in Somalia, Eritrean President Isaias Afewerki’s three-day visit to Kampala last week was interpreted as an attempt to end his country’s isolation. Analysts said the outcome of the visit would thus have security and geopolitical ramifications right across East Africa and the Horn of Africa.

Even though he was invited by Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni — whose troops form the backbone of the nearly 10,000-strong African Union Mission in Somalia, Amisom, that is fighting the Somali militia — Afewerki is said to have leaped at the opportunity to mend fences with regional leaders within the framework of the Inter Governmental Authority on Development (Igad).

However, geopolitical and security analysts were not persuaded that Afewerki is about to turn a new leaf. They argued that the Eritrean leader, whom a UN Monitoring Group report last month accused of fuelling terror in the region through Al Shabaab, was using his Kampala visit to push for his own agenda in Somalia in the wake of the defeat of Al Shabaab in Mogadishu. This is the immediate setback that triggered Afewerki’s “relenting,” but the war to achieve other objectives is not yet lost.

“He still commands a lot of respect among the big Somali Islamist groups; he is not here to surrender, because Afewerki is a hard man. But he can use this platform to bargain with regional and international leaders. And this is something that Museveni can buy into, because he also knows what cards Afewerki holds,” said Simon Mulongo, Ugandan legislator and former director of the Eastern African Standby Brigade.

The visit came as Eritrea launched a last-ditch diplomatic offensive to stave off further international sanctions that would cut off major streams of revenue for the government, crippling an already weak economy.

The UN Security Council is preparing to vote on adopting a report that accuses Asmara of working to destabilise the Horn of Africa region, including financing armed groups in Somalia, Sudan and Djibouti.

The Eritrean government has instead called for an internationally brokered “political and diplomatic” solution to its longstanding territorial row with Ethiopia, which Asmara said was the main problem in the Horn region.

According to Mr Mulongo, Afewerki stands for a united Somalia, referred to as “five-star Somalia” that comprises the regions of Ogaden, the Somali territory in the north of Kenya, Djibouti, Somaliland and Puntland.

Indeed, after hours of a closed-door meeting with his host, Afewerki reiterated this position, arguing that Somalia is not just about Al Shabaab or his perceived support of the terror group that is affiliated to Al Qaeda. 

“Get this out of your mind. Somalia isn’t about Al Shabaab. The main issue is reconstitution of Somalia,” he said during a joint press conference he addressed with his host at State House Entebbe at the end of his visit on Thursday last week.

“We shall not be distracted by Al Shabaab. People try to focus on this negative phenomenon, it’s distracting… If Somalia can be reconstituted, they will take on any terrorism organisation, piracy and even this famine. We are not talking Al Shabaab… we are focusing on serious issues,” he said, adding that accusations that his government is funding Al Shabaab are “accumulated rumours and lies.”

Even though Uganda and Burundi are the only countries to contribute troops to Amisom, the member states of Igad — Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia, Sudan, Djibouti and Somalia — have rallied behind the Somali Transitional Federal Government.

“At this time, what is required is not isolationist measures that destabilise the region but diplomatic and political efforts that will build trust and confidence among the countries in the region,” read a statement circulated by Eritrea’s missions at the UN and Africa Union.

Eritrea, already under a UN arms embargo, has over the past month been under huge international pressure after a UN Monitoring Group report accused it of supporting extremist groups including Somali fundamentalist militias as part of its bitter row with neighbour Ethiopia.

Eritrea was sucked into the Somali conflict because of geopolitics; it then became the vanguard of forces against Ethiopian and Western interests, which meant that it was also against Igad interests, meaning it ended up isolated.