By DANIEL K. KALINAKI
The EastAfrican

When opposition leader Dr Kizza Besigye declared his candidacy for the 2001 presidential election, Amama Mbabazi, then minister in charge of the presidency, famously accused Besigye of “jumping the queue” to succeed President Museveni.

Last week, Mr Mbabazi went to the Kyankwanzi retreat as NRM secretary-general, Minister for Security, and a leading contender in the yet-to-be-opened race to succeed President Museveni as leader of state and party. He left desperately trying to hold onto his influence over the party, his Cabinet post, and his place in the queue.

Many party MPs told President Museveni that Mr Mbabazi was not accessible enough to them and that he ought to be relieved of one of his positions.

Asking Mr Mbabazi to choose between his two jobs is the political equivalent of choosing between a rock and a hard place. As secretary-general, he can develop a power base within the party but would lack the presence, leverage, and resources that come from walking the corridors of power.

Those come to him by virtue of his security ministry, a new creation in which Mbabazi is more of a regional envoy for the president, and one whose frequent travels keep him from doing the one thing any potential successor must do; develop a power base within the party.

That in itself poses a challenge to Mr Mbabazi who is considered by many to be “arrogant and aloof” – a huge liability in a party that wins elections because of its ability to draw support from the poor in the rural areas.

Mr Mbabazi was not available to speak to The EastAfrican but party spokesman Ofwono Opondo said that his place in the queue will depend on his ability to navigate the party through its patch of stormy seas.

“It is going to depend a lot on how he runs the party, handles the internal contradictions in the party, the contradictions between the party and the government and the party and the people,” said Mr Opondo.

The party spokesman said Mbabazi’s Cabinet post is what “keeps him out of circulation” and said that the retreat had resolved to make deputy secretary-general Dorothy Hyuha a more visible presence at the party headquarters in Kampala.

But Mr Mbabazi, Mr Opondo added, still has to climb down from his high horse.

“We also expect Mbabazi to improve the way he communicates with MPs,” Mr Opondo told The EastAfrican. “He is not like Museveni; he does not have Museveni’s sophistication and skills.”

Mr Opondo continued: “The NRM itself is coming under more and more intense scrutiny from within. No one is being taken for granted. In order to succeed Museveni, you must be at his level or above him. Parliament is a pivotal area and the way you handle parliament is going to be key.”

A couple of years ago, Mr Mbabazi, a lawyer, held the portfolios of Attorney-General and Minister for Defence, earning the moniker “Super Minister.”

His challenge is to convert that clout, since reduced, to become a “super substitute” for the presidency, should the position become available.

With the youthful MPs seeking to flex their political muscles in Parliament, Mr Mbabazi needs to court the “rebels” without antagonising the old guard or appearing too soft.

He also needs to appeal to the party base without appearing to accommodate the rebellious tendencies of the young Turks.

And most importantly, he must be sure that his boss in the party and Cabinet wants to retire and would look kindly on party members cultivating their own support networks.

With all that to play for, no wonder Besigye jumped the queue.