Unlike previous efforts, the Deby-Bashir deal is promising

First, the scene was not outside the two countries’ borders, but in Khartoum.

That the two foes — Deby and Bashir — can fully trust each other is perhaps a reflection on how much the situation has changed.

At one time they couldn’t talk. In fact, in July 2008, Deby refused to meet al-Bashir on the sidelines of the African Union Summit in Egypt despite the urging of Burkina Faso’s President Blaise Compaore.

Also, the rebels have been weakened. After the botched attempts at peace talks in Sirte in 2008, the tide started shifting against the Darfur rebel groups who failed to show up. The few that did send junior officials.

Rebel leaders also seem to have favoured soft ground over the bush. Some hang around East African capitals, including Juba.

Others such as al Nur in Paris, have chosen to execute the war from capital towns far away.

According to various Darfuris, most leaders of the various factions cannot enter Darfur because they have no base or force to support them against government forces.

Hence, Deby is better off being on the same page with Bashir than sticking with the rebels.

The timing is especially crucial because both Deby and Bashir head to the elections this year. Bashir goes first in April.

It is possible that neither really wants a daring raid by rebels backed by the other in the middle of an election.

According to one JEM spokesman, Bashir, who is unlikely to sweep many votes in the south and east of the country, needs a vote from Darfur to be certain of winning the Sudan presidency.

Deby, a godfather to some of the Darfur rebel factions can deliver them to Bashir. And, of course, both men distrust the UN.

Bashir’s engagement with the UN has not been without grumbling.

In fact, the UN was told to keep off the elections there. Deby wants the UN civilian and military contingent out of the country by July, just over a year after the force arrived.

Before the UN peacekeeping force, the European Union force kept the peace there.

“Chad wants stability of its borders and perhaps to improve its international image,” according to the JEM spokesman. “As it transpired, Bashir wants the deal for his internal campaign. It also improves Khartoum’s image internationally and will help in the fight against the ICC.”

Second and perhaps more important for last month’s peace overtures is the dogged effort of one man, Scott Gration.

The US diplomat has visited Sudan five times since April last year.

Gration’s predecessor, Richard Williamson, was a rare sight in the war ravaged country.

Barely a week after the Deby-Bashir dance, Gration returned to Chad and Sudan.

“We are very pleased with the progress that is being made on behalf of the government, and we will do our part to ensure that it results in lasting peace for the people of Sudan,” Gration said.

Obama’s envoy should, perhaps, be pleased more with himself than with the JEM-Sudan deal.

In a way, the Deby-Bashir peace deal, the precursor to the JEM-Sudan deal, is a sign that in many respects, engagement trumps isolation.

Even the rebels are now talking engagement.

As news leaked that the Arab League planned a conference in Darfur, JEM immediately issued a statement welcoming the plan.

JEM had one apparent condition: “Engagement,” Ahmed Husain Adam, the JEM Spokesman said mid February.

He added: “The deal should be co-ordinated with people of Darfur as well as with those who have carried arms to defend the interests of the region.”

A week later, JEM signed a framework of understanding with the government delegation in Qatar.

The SLM faction still wants to talk. And the Road Map Group that didn’t sign a deal scampered to unite under Tigani Seise.

Tigani’s leadership lasted less than 24 hours when many withdrew.

But all indicators are that the spirit of engagement espoused by Gration is very much in the air.