Neighbours’ polls raise fears of influx of refugees into Kenya

Kenya may witness an influx of refugees from Uganda, Southern Sudan and Somalia if experts’ projections of increased political tensions in these countries come true.

This could mean a strain on limited humanitarian resources, including the budget, physical holding capacities of camps and relief supplies.

United Nations resident and humanitarian co-ordinator Aeneas Chuma said the forthcoming referendum in Southern Sudan is heightening tensions, while Uganda is likely to have a hotly contested general election, joining Somalia in the list of troubled countries whose nationals have been seeking refuge in Kenya.

“We have contingency plans for Somalia which has traditionally suffered a protracted internal conflict. We don’t have the same for Uganda and Sudan,” Mr Chuma said.

In the past financial year, the UN humanitarian budget for Kenya was $580 million, 65 per cent of which has been funded. A similar figure has been proposed for 2010.

An average of 5,000 Somali refugees cross the border into Kenya on a daily basis.

In its January projections, the United Nations Commissioner for Human Rights said it expects the number of refugees in the country to rise to over 400,000.

In Uganda, opposition parties have joined forces in a bid to present a single presidential candidate to challenge President Yoweri Museveni in elections to be held next year.

Peace deal

After decades of war, guns went silent as the north and southern factions of Sudan signed a peace deal providing for transitional 50 per cent resource sharing and governance arrangements.

As part of the provisions of the peace negotiations, Sudan is set to hold a referendum next year in which the Southerners will decide whether they want to be independent or the country should remain united.

In the past few weeks, an impasse over the adopted referendum law has emerged, with Sudan Peoples’ Liberation Movement (SPLM) accusing the National Congress Party (NCP) of introducing illegal amendments.

According to analysts, peace will be decided by two key issues: The willingness of the Khartoum government to accept the outcome of the referendum; and the 50-50 sharing of oil resource in the south.

“I didn’t think we would return to war... but if the South votes for separation and the NCP says no... [and] they proceed to occupy the oil areas, there will be a return to war,” SPLM secretary general Pagam Amum, told Integrated Regional Information Network.

“We are monitoring the situation closely. As guarantors of the peace deal, we will try to ensure that both parties stay true to the peace agreement,” director of communications at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Prof Egara Kibaji said.

Simultaneous unrest in Sudan, Somalia, and Uganda could push Kenya’s humanitarian resources to the limit.

There have been calls for the developed world to accept refugees escaping conflict in their countries as a way of easing pressure on countries in unique geo-political positions like Kenya.

According to Mr Chuma, America, Australia, and Scandinavian countries have been accepting refugees after geo-screening.