Museveni’s fourth term beckons

Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni marks 24 years in power on January 26 with his eyes set on elections next year, that could give him the chance to become one of Africa’s longest-serving leaders.

President Museveni, 65, fought his way into power on January 26, 1986 after winning a five-year bush war.

He had moved first against twice-ruler Apollo Milton Obote and later against Tito Okello Lutwa, who deposed Obote in a July 1985 coup. Obote first ruled in 1966-1971 after ousting Uganda’s first president Sir Edward “Freddie” Muteesa, and then in 1980-1985 after a contested poll.

President Museveni, who has ruled Uganda longer than all the country’s former leaders combined, used these complaints to launch his guerrilla war with 27 men in the central Luwero region.

A dispirited opposition appears set to give President Museveni, his fourth straight elective term, analysts said.

“It appears he will have an easier run this time round,” said northern legislator Isha Otto, from the opposition Uganda People’s Congress of former ruler Obote. “That is the tragedy. While we in the opposition are busy bickering, Museveni is busy using state resources to campaign and entrench himself in power.”

Museveni recently called the top consultative body of his National Resistance Movement party — the National Executive Committee — to his State House residence in Entebbe to try to reconcile division in the party’s top ranks and give it a head-start into the 2011 polls.

Newspapers ran front-page pictures of NRM officials hugging as Museveni looked on.

“He is using state resources to dig in further; if we in the opposition are not careful, we might hand him a bigger victory than he could ever have hoped for,” said Dan Mugarura, Chief Electoral Commissioner of the main opposition, Forum for Democratic Change, which came second in the past two polls.

“We are working very hard to grant him that victory since we are deeply divided,” added Erias Lukwago legal advisor to the Democratic Party, one of Uganda’s oldest parties.

“Of course, part of NRM’s divisions are self made; that we know, but it is working very well for them and could cost us state power next year,” added Mr Lukwago.

NRM officials said they were confident about a victory in the upcoming elections and they expected a higher vote count than in the previous poll.
“We hope for at least 60 per cent of the national vote,” said East African Legislative Assembly member Mike Sebalu and a member of NRM’s National Executive Committee.

However, President Museveni’s support has been waning ever since his first win when he garnered 74.8 per cent of the votes counted against DP’s Paul Ssemogerere. Five years later, that figure was down to 69.9 per cent. In 2006, Museveni regained power with 54 per cent of the vote even though the opposition FDC that came second said he had rigged the elections.

To win outright, a candidate must garner more than half of all valid votes counted. Otherwise, the top two candidates face off in a run-off, something that is yet to be seen in Uganda’s politics.

At the time, deep divisions were apparent in virtually all of Uganda’s parties. Most parties have now united under the Inter-Party Cooperation. The DP and another party formed by a former Museveni confidant declined to join.