Erratic rains leave EA worried of poor 2009 grain harvest...

East African Community countries are threatened with a shortfall in grain production made worse by erratic rains this year.

For example, Kenya’s preliminary forecast for maize production for 2009 is 2.4 million tonnes — 90 per cent below the average of the 2008 long rains season.

According to the Eastern Africa Grain Council (EAGC) — Regional Agricultural Trade Intelligence Network (Ratin), insufficient rainfall during the initial stage of the main cropping season (March-April) hindered crop growth, increasing the probability of yet another poor harvest.

However, production estimates are favourable in western growing regions bordering Lake Victoria, which received near normal rainfall from March to June.

Parts of Trans Nzoia (Kitale) and Nandi North (Mosop, Aldai and Lessos) are also expected to get a good crop this year.

Between January and July, Kenya had imported approximately 1.06 million tonnes of maize through the Mombasa port.

Informal cross border statistics maintained by EAGC-Ratin show that 50,725 tonnes and 1,147 tonnes of maize and rice respectively crossed into Kenya from Tanzania between January and July 2009.

While 120,112 tonnes of maize and 81,918 tonnes of beans crossed from Uganda during the same period.

The demand for maize from Uganda is low due to availability of cheaper duty free imported maize from South Africa.

The import parity price for Busia (Uganda)-Nairobi at the moment is $376 per tonne compared with $325 per tonne for Durban-Nairobi.

The story is no different when it comes to wheat whose production in most parts of the North Rift is set to decline due to erratic rainfall that has disrupted planting.

Ministry of Agriculture projections indicate that the North Rift will produce about 4 million bags of wheat against the country’s annual consumption of 11 million bags.

In Tanzania, most of the areas have started harvesting maize, paddy rice and sorghum.

Cereal production is expected to be low in 2008/09 season due to limited input utilisation caused by high fertiliser costs and low rainfall for two consecutive seasons.

Cereal production is expected to reach 5,265,309 tonnes against cereal requirements of 6,578,508 tonnes.

In Uganda, harvesting is under-way. Late rains in the northeast delayed planting activities, raising concerns that the harvest will be below average.

Poorly distributed rains resulted in variation in the crop development, but overall average rains were recorded throughout most parts of the country, with the exception of western and central regions, which received below normal rains during April and May.

Rice supplies are coming from Mbale district in the east and Hoima in the west.

Imported rice from Pakistan and Vietnam was surprisingly traded at high prices and in large quantities compared with local brands.

Uganda sorghum was in high demand in Kenya and statistics shows that between March and July, 12,523 tonnes of sorghum crossed to Kenya through Busia border.

According to EAGC-Ratin, Rwanda imported 32,800 tonnes of rice from Zambia and Pakistan in July, while 117,500 tonnes of wheat was imported from Russia and Argentina.

In Dar es Salaam, maize prices have remained relatively stable in 2009.

However, in July, they were 18 per cent higher than last year’s prices, at $240 per tonne.

A bumper maize harvest in Malawi is anticipated to lower prices in Southern Tanzania.

Though there is market availability in Southern African countries — Zimbabwe and Zambia, the ban on maize export is still on in Tanzania.

Maize prices in Nairobi increased by 24 per cent between January and July 2009 and remain 18 per cent higher, at $324 per tonne, compared with July last year.

The prices were at a peak of $450 per tonne in May 2009.

The decline in national maize production in 2008/09 season caused the high maize prices despite the duty waiver on imported maize.