Abyei dispute is settled, but will verdict be respected?

Historically, Abyei — which contains the bulk of the oil deposits in the south — has been occupied by the Ngok Dinka and the Misseriya.

For decades the two communities, who both keep cattle, had developed a traditional arrangement where during drought the Misseriya could water their cattle on River Kiir, the only one that survives the drought in the region.

But after the CPA, the region became increasingly militarised and the GOSS has been accusing Khartoum of arming the Misseriya to terrorise other groups with the intention of intimidating them before the 2011 referendum.

Now with both sides undertaking to respect the ruling by the arbitration team, the question is whether they will be willing to put aside their vested interests to allow the Abyei people to decide in 2011 which side they belong.

Earlier in the year, Commissioner Bakhet of Abyei repeated Khartoum’s long-held position that a referendum for Abyei was out of the question if the report by the Abyei Boundary Commission was left to stand.

To-date, the security arrange-ment contained in the Abyei Protocol has not been implemented.

The protocol had stated that only three groups are allowed to carry arms — Sudanese People’s Liberation Army, Sudanese Armed Forces and the Joint Integrated Unit.

However, the SPLM had been complaining that the NCP has not been keen to disarm militias allied to Khartoum while the SPLM had disarmed those allied to it, one among them being Polino Matip, who is now a senior commander with SPLA.

The semi-autonomous South has been experiencing inter-ethnic clashes with the Nouth leadership, attributed to the tension over probable secession by the South.