Ruling party tightening grip on Ethiopia ahead of poll

Ethiopia will be holding elections next year, but all indications are that the ruling party, the Ethiopian Peoples Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) will win, and there could be a repeat of the 2005 post-election violence because of two factors.

One, the government has closed all democratic space and two, the opposition is hugely divided.

Back in 2005, the opposition under the umbrella of the Coalition for Unity and Democracy (CUD), formed only six months before the May elections, gained massive popularity, especially in Addis Ababa winning all the seats in the capital.

Today, a combination of a seriously splintered and weak opposition, and the perception of Zenawi by the US as an ally in the war against terror in the Horn of Africa, has given EPRDF a head start.

There is also a widespread feeling that the ruling party, has created conditions to ensure its win, resulting in a growing campaign for an election boycott by the opposition.

The government has closed all democratic space by monitoring and intimidating the media and civil society.

It has tightened its control on free speech, forcing observers to question whether it will be possible to hold a free and fair election under the prevailing circumstances.

Some radical opposition leaders are calling for an election boycott.

The government operates and controls mobile telephone and the short messaging service (SMS) can be disabled anytime.

Since the violence of 2005, the EPRDF has not left anything to chance.

The party has tacitly started campaigning, funding youth groups composing about six million members, farmers associations, women groups and any other groups that could vote against it.

Prime Minister Meles Zenawi has hinted that he might not run in 2010, but the majority of Ethiopians do not take this seriously.

The EastAfrican recently visited the capital, Addis Ababa, where the largely disillusioned populace have resigned to the fact that EPRDF will retain power. But there is simmering discontent.

“The people are withdrawn because they are angry that EPRDF is practising politics of exclusion and it is not ready to share power, despite the realisation that a good number of Ethiopians do not support it but are afraid to speak out for fear of persecution. This could create a conducive ground for a repeat of the 2005 post-election violence,” said Mesfin Kebede, a former journalist, who had to abandon the profession due to an increasingly hostile operating environment.

In 2005, the results were delayed from May to September following widespread claims of fraud, which prompted various unrest in which hundreds of people were arrested and at least 200 killed by security forces.