The country’s path to stability has been gradual but impressive. The Special Representative of the UN Secretary General to Somalia spoke with AGGREY MUTAMBO on the challenges Mogadishu faces as it rebuilds the country and transitions to a federal state, ahead of the 2016 general election.

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Is Somalia ready to run its own affairs?

Last year, forces from the African Union Mission to Somalia (Amisom) alongside the Somalia national army regained at least 18 towns from Al Shabaab, including key towns and port cities. That was the biggest expansion that Amisom has made since 2007. So, there is no doubt that militarily, Amisom is creating the required conditions for Somalis to do what they need to do, which is to put in place a political system.

However, this will take time. Defeating an extremist ideology and terrorist activity requires more than a military approach. It requires a comprehensive approach — both politically and economically. For example, politically, there is a need to rebuild a federal state where people have a voice in how they are governed. This will make leaders accountable and also help to boost the rule of law.

Economically, we can’t forget that in Somalia, 70 per cent of the people are under the age of 30 and it is one of the world’s poorest countries. The availability of economic activities and jobs is key in countering this extremism.

Has Al Shabaab been defeated or could it just be disappearing due to pressure, only to regroup later?

The militant group has been defeated. Besides being pushed out of key towns, it has been denied access to the port where it gets supplies and revenue. It has also been deprived of military training bases and facilities.

Equally, over the past few months, some al Shabaab members have surrendered and there are indications of disagreements within the group. This shows it is no longer a unified entity.

While all these are positive developments, we must never be blind to the fact that the militants still have the ability to carry out their terrorists activities, and some of its members still have access to weapons and equipment.

Recently, the Sierra Leonean troops left after completing their term with Amison. They were, however, not replaced due to Ebola-related issues. How has this affected operations in the country?

A decision was made in Addis Ababa that the Sierra Leonean troops would be replaced by a combination of Kenyans and Ethiopians. I believe this is underway. It is the priority of Amisom not to leave any form of security vacuum on the ground at any given moment.

What is the international community doing to help Somalis take control of their country?

Over the past two years, we have put in place a comprehensive partnership — the New Deal Somali Compact — which is founded on the principles of ownership and leadership by the Somali. It recognises that at this stage of development, Somalia needs the support of its international friends and partners.

For example politically, the country requires technical and strategic advice for the huge task ahead of creating a federal system of government. On the security front, Somalia needs partners on the ground including the international community to help prepare its national army to take charge.

What is the progress made so far in creating a federal state?

The process requires the setting up of federal member states and negotiating how power, wealth and resources will be shared. This is already underway.

For example, in the south, we have Jubbaland with an interim administration in place as a result of an agreement signed in Addis Ababa in 2013.

Last year, there was an agreement in Baidoa to set up an interim south-western region administration, and there is a process for the central region too. The president envisages that at least one more federal state will be formed from the two regions of Hiraan and Middle Shabelle, and then of course the question about the state of the capital Mogadishu remains.

While the process is ongoing, it is important that it is accelerated if Somalis are to achieve the second objective of holding democratic elections next year.

How long is it going to take to have all systems in Somalia running?

It is difficult to put timelines on that as it is affected by a number of factors. For example, establishing the security forces is both a security and political affair. One must ask questions such as will it be a federal or a regional army, or will it be a federal or regional police? These questions need to be answered as part of the process of forming federal states and reviewing the federal constitution.

Another factor is the reality on the ground. We are trying to do two things at once: Build a new Somali security force and at the same time fight an active conflict against al Shabaab. That complicates the matter. As the combat phase passes, there are likely to be more opportunities to concentrate on the restructuring of the security forces. 

But considering that the systems need to be in place before the 2016 general election, how realistic is this?

This is a target that Somalis set for themselves and our job is to help them as much as we can to achieve it. It was decided in Copenhagen in November last year when international partners and the federal government sat together at a high-level forum, that it would be important to review progress in six months. So, in May, another high-level forum is expected in Mogadishu.

The partners will have to weigh the achievements so far, and what is achievable with regard to the political timelines, political agenda and the security agenda.

However, at this stage, the focus is on creating the federal government, an independent electoral commission and constitutional review commission. These institutions are key and need to be set up and start operations immediately.

On the other hand, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud has on numerous occasions said that he is committed to exiting in September 2016 at the end of his term. I think that is a view that international partners would like to support.