Calling itself the Ethiopian Youth Movement, the group had set May 28 as the ‘day of rage’ against what it said was Zenawi’s authoritarian regime.

The day was chosen to coincide with the 20th anniversary celebrations of Ethiopia’s ruling party. In online networks and all through the blogosphere thousands of Ethiopians had subscribed to the cause, giving rise to feeble hopes of a rare challenge to Zenawi’s hold on the Horn of Africa country.

Instead, tens of thousands turned out to fervently mark the ruling Ethiopian People’s Democratic Front (EPRDF) brief but colourful party. At Meskel Square in the capital Addis Ababa, throngs chanted praises of Zenawi in a solid show of support.

It is estimated that the EPRDF has five million members. However, the Zenawi administration remains far from upholding democratic values and has been repeatedly criticised for its poor human rights and media freedom record.

Despite this the opposition remains a shell. Zenawi’s party holds an absolute 99.6 per cent majority in parliament after last year’s elections.
The date, May 28, also marked the 20th anniversary of the fall of Col Mengistu Hailemariam’s brutal regime, which brought Zenawi and his guerilla group to power after a 17-year bitter struggle.

Delicate act

And Zenawi looks a strong bet to enhance his grip on power. In the last two decades Zenawi has perfected a delicate balancing act of keeping himself relevant, while remaining extremely useful to western powers.

His military victories against Eritrea and Somali Islamists helped buff up the importance of his leadership in a fragile region.

But there have been pockets of turbulence along the way. 2005 was the most challenging year for Zenawi’s administration, after opposition politicians got a landslide victory in all major towns including the capital.

The incumbent responded harshly, with the resulting post-election violence leaving some 200 dead. A slew of opposition leaders also ended in prison. It has since then looked impossible to challenge Zenawi’s rule through the ballot, leading some opposed to him to declare an armed struggle against him.

The returns have been scant, with some veteran opposition politicians such as Birtukan Midekesa and Siye Abreham opting to retire and go to school abroad for further studies.

The EPRDF officially declares in its party document that a dominant one-party rule would help Ethiopia out of its biting poverty.

Zenawi calls his rule ‘developmental state’ which is far from the traditionally accepted capitalist ideology and liberal administration — which the premier terms a “dead end”. With this cocktail prescription, Zenawi has succeeded in providing better infrastructure such as roads, telecoms, power and urban housing.

The IMF, World Bank and other multilateral organisations have lavished praise on the Ethiopian economy, and it is now one of the fastest growing in sub-Saharan Africa, expanding at an average of eight per cent in the last seven years.

A challenge

But inflation remains a challenge, measured at 29 per cent in April 2011. This February, Zenawi was forced to intervene, placing a price cap on 18 different food items including sugar, oil and meat. However, this has also resulted in the disappearance of some of the items from the market altogether, leading to an expensive but thriving black market.

Since this May the government has become the sole importer and distributor of wheat, oil and sugar, in a throwback to the Marxist regime days of Col Mengistu in the 1980s.

Zenawi denied that the price controls were meant to contain an Arab-style revolt by the people.

Other factors also suggest that he may be around for quite some time. His articulate thoughts on economies and Ethiopia’s military capability has helped Zenawi become a spokesperson for the continent as well as for developing nations in various international fora.

He co-chaired the UN’s Climate Change panel and leads Africa on climate negotiations, articulating the region’s concerns at G8 and G20 gatherings.

According to local party supporters and international admirers, Zenawi is unconventionally “brilliant.” And despite deteriorating governance at home, Ethiopia’s development aid has been steadily growing. Following the Arab uprising, Ethiopia, sub-Saharan Africa’s second most populous country, has been in a tailspin schedule over its grand plan to erect a $5 billion hydro dam on the Nile River.

Patriotic leader

The decision sparked excitement and support towards the administration, with Ethiopians keen on contributing to building the dam without any foreign aid.

Egypt, for who the Nile waters are an economic lifeline, desperately sent delegations to Addis Ababa to plead with the Ethiopian leader to ensure that the 5,250 Megawatt dam did not harm her share of the water.

Zenawi has managed to tap this into a diplomatic victory, and is now portrayed as the most patriotic leader Ethiopia has ever seen.
Now his image is even fast appearing on the walls of individual homes and offices, as well as on big billboards in major streets.

The government’s five-year growth plan aims to transform Ethiopia into a middle income country by increasing productivity and generating internal wealth.

Zenawi has also a set a target to end foreign food aid within the next four years, with nearly three million people in danger of hunger this year.

Despite the campaign by the Ethiopian Youth Movement — including thousands of pamphlets to educational institutions — it looks increasing likely that Zenawi will be in power a bit longer. For now, the mysterious group remains only on Facebook and Twitter, at odds with the situation on the ground.