Why 2010 was a watershed year for peace in Somalia, though risks remain

When I came to Mogadishu… there was one road built by the Italians. If you try to force me to stand down, I will leave the city as I found it,” so said the late Somali president, Gen Mohamed Siad Barre.

On January 26, Somalia marked two decades since his overthrow. In that time, much of the Somali capital, as well as much of the country, has indeed been reduced to rubble.

Still, when history is written, 2010 may well come to be regarded as the year Somalia rejected Barre’s gloomy prediction.

The year witnessed the full deployment of the continental peacekeeping force, the African Union Mission in Somalia (Amisom) as well as the beginning of the collapse of extremist insurgency against the country’s internationally recognised Transitional Federal Government (TFG).

However, it also marked a new phase in the internationalisation of the Somali conflict, with Al Shabaab carrying out attacks outside Somalia for the first time.

When the year began, the country was still reeling from the December 3, 2009 suicide bombing of a graduation ceremony for medical students that killed over 30 people.

The TFG was still riven by internal wrangling and unable to deliver services to the needy population. The 4,000 Ugandan and Burundian peacekeepers, only half their then mandated strength of 8,000, controlled less than a third of the capital, Mogadishu, and were struggling to keep the insurgents at bay.
Internationally, arguments for “constructive disengagement” from Somalia were gaining strength with proponents advocating the withdrawal of the AU forces, paving the way for an Al Shabaab takeover.

Undaunted, the AU continued to deploy more troops. In January, Amisom controlled only the seaport, the airport, the state house, Villa Somalia and the famous K-4 junction in Mogadishu.

As its capacity improved, and more troops arrived, Amisom extended its deployment in the capital. By April, when their number had surpassed 6,000, it had established 12 bases and was pushing back the insurgents.

By October, the force had stretched its control to the Juba Hotel, Bondere, Shakara, the parliament building, the Coca- Cola factory, Dabka junction, Fishbay, and Singale.

Today, with Amisom support, the government can exercise its authority in over 60 per cent of the city area and 80 per cent of its population. In many of these areas, life, business and the economy are slowly returning to normal.

This reality has been attested to by many independent analysts of the Somali conflict. For instance, according to a recent article in the Economist: “The Makaal Mukarama Road, which links the presidential palace with the AU headquarters at the airport, was previously unsafe. The Shabaab targeted it with improvised explosive devices, machine gun-fire and mortars. Now packed minibuses and private cars pass up and down.”

Much of this progress was achieved in the face of a determined and ruthless campaign of terror waged by the insurgents.

On July 11, a week before a scheduled meeting of AU Heads of State in the Ugandan capital, Kampala, Al Shabaab carried out twin terrorist attacks in the city killing 76 people as they watched the World Cup finals.

While the extremists doubtless hoped to dent the AU resolve, the atrocities had the opposite effect. The Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (Igad) immediately agreed to deploy a further 2,000 troops, and shortly thereafter the AU recommended the expansion of the Amisom force to 20,000.