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What should be done about the world's population explosion?

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Kenya is one of the countries experiencing population explosion. Half of its population is aged 25 years and below. File Photo

Kenya is one of the countries experiencing population explosion. Half of its population is aged 25 years and below. File Photo 

By Richard Ingham (AFP)  (email the author)
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Posted  Wednesday, September 22  2010 at  18:23

Of all the issues that will be aired from the pulpit of the UN's development summit this week, one is likely to stand out by its absence: What should be done about the world's population explosion?

To many campaigners, demographic growth is the gorilla in the UN's living room, a blindingly obvious problem interlinked with poverty and environment that gets carefully ignored whenever leaders meet.

"When the Millennium Development Goals were adopted, there was not a single target on population or family planning access," said Alex Ezeh, executive director of the Africa Population Studies and Health Research Centre in Nairobi.

"It was a huge mistake," he said. "The world is only now just waking up."

Campaigners on population issues acknowledge that poverty and environmental damage can have complex causes. A surge in population in some well-documented cases has helped catapult a country to prosperity.

But, they also say, relentless population pressure is common to many of the problems besetting the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), up for review in New York. The three-day summit opens on Monday.

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In poor countries, unbraked demographic growth adds to strain on infrastructure, health and educational resources, amplifies the risk of environmental damage and boosts exposure to the wrath of climate change.

Ezeh pointed in particular to the dilemma in Africa.

Even if countries reduce the proportion of people living in poverty, the number living in poverty grows in absolute terms simply because of massive population growth.

"If you have a population growing at three percent (per year), that means it is doubling every 23, 24 years or so," he said.

"It means, for instance, that you will have maybe twice the number of children needing education. But it is almost impossible for countries to double the number of schools and double the number of teachers during this time."

One example is Kenya, where the population in 2009 stood at 38.6 million, an increase of around 10 million since 1999. Less than a third of Kenyans have piped water and three-quarters have no mains sanitation.

Since the MDGs were drawn up in 2000, the world's population has expanded from 6.0 to 6.8 billion, 95 percent of whom were born in poorer countries. By 2050, the total is likely to be more than nine billion, according to UN estimates.

Providing these extra souls with housing, water, electricity, sewerage, hospitals and schooling is going to be a mighty challenge, as a report issued in March by UN Human Settlements Programme revealed.

It found that 227 million people had escaped slums in the past decade -- but the overall people living in slums had increased, from 776.7 million to 827.6 million. Half of the rise was due to population increase in existing slums, and a quarter to rural exodus.

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