Green gold losing its glitter to be?

The promise of Green Gold is fading from Jatropha curcas, a shrub that thrives in arid conditions and whose seeds yield a diesel-like oil.

Many had seen it as a potential saviour for marginal lands, a plant that could lift developing countries out of poverty and into a sustainable oily future.

Just last year, some analysts were predicting that the area planted with jatropha worldwide — at the time, 721,000 hectares — would rise as high as 22 million hectares by 2014.

The Jatropha Alliance, an advocacy group based in Berlin, was estimating that investments of up to $1 billion could be expected annually.

More than 130 companies were in the race, dominated by D1 Oils of London, which in 2007 had landed a $160 million deal with oil giant BP.

But this July, BP and D1 announced that their deal was off.

And of 140 investments made in biofuels so far this year, says analyst Harry Boyle of London-based New Energy Finance, only four or five have been in jatropha projects. “Jatropha has gone very quiet,” he says.

What happened?

It’s difficult to untangle the impacts of the global financial downturn from disappointment with jatropha in particular, says Rob Bailis, an environmental scientist at Yale University.

But, “over the past three years, the investment got way ahead of the plant science,” he says.

Early investors are now realising the plant’s limitations.

Jatropha can live in very dry conditions, but doesn’t necessarily yield a lot of seeds.

The plant takes three years or more to reach maturity, requiring care along the way.

And jatropha seedlings are often not well-suited to the climate in which they are planted.

Even supporters acknowledge that the allure of jatropha is fading somewhat.