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Kenya rates cap law, Brexit, Trump rise point to risk of global populism

Thursday September 22 2016

President Uhuru Kenyatta’s decision to sign into law the Bill capping interest rates, UK’s decision to exit the European Union and the rise of Republican nominee Donald Trump point at a risky global trend of populism with little concern for consequences.

Some commentators are hinting at the death of neo-liberalism, a theory that has guided economists who believe in market freedom and small government as a guarantee to fairness and equality. In its place they foresee the rise of anti-elitism across the globe.

Lionel Laurent, a Bloomberg Gadfly columnist covering finance and markets who previously worked at Reuters and Forbes, says Kenya offers a timely reminder of financial markets’ complacency about the risk of populism and the attractiveness of bashing banks to win votes.

When Kenya introduced a law setting a cap on commercial lending rates and a floor on deposit rates, banks were hit with an instant squeeze on margins that sent their shares to the lowest point in years, he notes.

“Investors were clearly unprepared for a measure designed to make banks poorer—or less greedy, depending on your point of view—in the face of what President Kenyatta described as ordinary citizens’ frustrations about the cost of credit and earnings from deposits,” he said.

READ: Kenya's move to cap bank rates rattles East Africa

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He admits that Kenyan lenders make huge returns with the country’s largest bank by assets, KCB Group, earning a return on equity of 24.7 per cent while rivals Co-operative Bank and Equity Group are on 24.5 per cent and 26.9 per cent respectively.

“That’s not just leagues ahead of the 5-7 per cent ROE (Return on Equity) at Europe’s biggest banks, it beats the 15-18 per cent at South Africa’s top lenders,” he said.

He, however, warns if banks stop catering to anyone but the safest credit risk, this may encourage shadow banks or dodgy lenders to step in.

ALSO READ: Kenya banking stocks fall for third session as bargain hunters creep in

And if smaller banks find it harder to make ends meet, they may get bought up, making dominant banks even bigger.

He said in the US, there are calls for a restoration of Glass-Steagall law, which was enacted as an emergency response to the failure of nearly 5,000 banks during the Great Depression prohibiting commercial banks from engaging in the investment business.

“Championing the banks, in particular, isn’t much of a vote winner. The US election has put the restoration of Glass-Steagall back on the table, with Republicans calling for big banks to be broken up,” he wrote.

He says the Kenya experience shows the potential for nasty surprises in a populist age, whether self-harming or not.

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