Kenya’s earnings from the agricultural sector are expected to suffer fresh shocks with projected poor rainfall in the second quarter of 2013.

The Kenya Meteorological Department on Wednesday projected that the long rains (expected between March-May) will be poorly distributed and depressed, hurting agricultural production and supply.

While earnings from horticulture and tea are expected to recover from the drop they registered in 2012, coffee earnings will slump, industry regulators said.

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The country has experienced rains over the past week with anticipation that the rains would continue through to May allowing for the flowering period that determines the quality and pricing of coffee, tea and horticultural products—the key agricultural exports.

Poor weather conditions could significantly change the fortunes of the key sector that employs more than 60 per cent of Kenya’s workforce and keep the cost of food high.

Kenya’s earnings from horticulture exports for example dropped marginally to $1.03 billion last year from $1.1billion in 2011, a report from Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) shows citing poor weather and weak demand.

Agriculture accounts for more than 22 per cent of Kenya’s real GDP and a poor performance in the sector stokes inflation, leaving less money in the pockets of consumers to take in more from other sectors of the economy.

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Agriculture grew by 6.9 per cent during the third quarter of 2012, up from 0.2 per cent in the same period last year, KNBS said.

The IMF projects the Kenyan economy will expand by at least 5.5 to 6 per cent this year from an estimated 4.5 to 5 per cent in 2012.

Treasury estimates the economy will grow by not less than five per cent, hinged on a rebound in agriculture, construction, wholesale and retail.

The fluctuation of the Kenya shilling against world major currencies also affected Kenya’s earnings from horticulture. The shilling has over the past few weeks strengthened from highs of Ksh87 to the dollar to Ksh85. 

“If the long rains fail, the horticulture sector will suffer,” said Jane Ngige, the chief executive at the Kenya Flower Council. “If the rains persist, the flower volumes will surpass this year’s and help the horticulture industry fetch around $1.2 billion in revenues,” said Ms Ngige.

Coffee production and revenues in Kenya will fall in 2013, blamed on changing weather patterns and dwindling international prices, said the Coffee Board of Kenya.

The rains experienced between December and February were inadequate for improved flowering of the crop and the eventual ripening.

“This eventually results in low quality produce because the coffee seeds will not develop in wet conducive weather, compared to the crop in other parts like Central and Southern America,” said Loise Njeru the managing director, Coffee Board of Kenya.

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The crop production is expected to fall by eight per cent in the 2012/13 (October-September) season to 45,000 metric tonnes (MT) from 49,000 MT last year. 

Revenues over the same period are expected to fall to Kshs 18 billion ($209 million) from Ksh19 billion ($220 million) last year — which registered a fall in volumes and revenues from 47,000MT respectively in 2010/2011.

The tea industry hopes to ride on the changing weather patterns expected to prevail in the first half of 2013 with earnings projected to rise by 4 per cent to Ksh116 billion ($1.4 billion) compared with 2012.

Tea export earnings rose to Ksh112 billion ($1.3 billion) in 2012 from Ksh109.4 billion ($1.2 billion) the previous year thanks to a stable foreign exchange rate and favourable global prices.