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Kenya seeks to raise external debt ceiling to meet project costs

Saturday November 22 2014
KEdebt

Kenya’s Treasury has asked Parliament to increase its debt ceiling as the region embarks on multibillion-dollar infrastructural projects that have forced governments to seek funds from domestic and foreign investors through bonds and Treasury bills. TEA GRAPHIC | NATION MEDIA GROUP

Kenya’s Treasury has asked Parliament to increase its debt ceiling as the region embarks on multibillion-dollar infrastructural projects that have forced governments to seek funds from domestic and foreign investors through bonds and Treasury bills.

The Treasury has asked MPs for approval to borrow up to $27.2 billion; the current limit is $13 billion.

In the request, Treasury Principal Secretary Kamau Thugge says the country is likely to break the debt ceiling.

“We are seeking financing to meet the cost of the country’s infrastructure development. This would include the implementation of the standard gauge railway and Lapsset, 10,000km of roads, generation of 5,000MW and irrigation,” the PS writes.

In January 2013, Kenya’s parliament raised the external debt ceiling from $8.7 billion to $13 billion. By September 30 this year, the external debt stood at $11.4 billion.

The IMF, in its latest country assessment, says Kenya’s debt is manageable. The major risk for Kenya, the Fund says, is the rising external debt against a slower growth in export earnings.

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In March, Kenya’s national debt was $25 billion, of which $13 billion, about 56.6 per cent, was domestic debt.

As at September 2014, almost 52 per cent of the national debt was held by local commercial banks, insurance companies, pension funds and other domestic investors.

In June 2014, Kenya raised $2 billion through a Eurobond, but the size of the bond, at close to 3.5 per cent of GDP, represents a marked increase of the proportion of commercial debt in total external debt.

“The subscription of the bond has now pushed external public debt from 23 per cent to 26 per cent of GDP, thereby exposing Kenya to higher foreign currency risks,” said Alexandria Okoth, a fixed income dealer at a local bank.

Uganda is also facing a growing public debt dilemma. Maria Kiwanuka, the Minister of Finance, Planning and Economic Development, said the country’s public debt is projected to rise to $7 billion by the end of 2014, from $6.4 billion last year.

“Of this, $4.2 billion is external and $2.8 billion is domestic. Our public debt remains sustainable and Uganda is not under debt distress. Over the medium term, the debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to peak at about 39.8 per cent of GDP,” Ms Kiwanuka said while reading Uganda’s budget in June.

READ: Uganda’s mega projects key to growth but spark renewed debt fears

Tanzania has been involved in various infrastructural developments — expanding and building new ports, constructing power plants and laying roads — under a $26.3 billion five-year development plan.

Finance Minister William Mgimwa, while delivering the country’s budget speech in June, noted that in 2013, Tanzania spent $3.5 billion on development projects including initiating the construction of a gas pipeline from the southern Mtwara region to Dar es Salaam.

Tanzania’s public debt was about $16 billion at the end of last year, with most of it incurred by the government. According to Bank of Tanzania chief economist and top policy researcher Joseph Masawe, the total external debt stock as at July stood at $14 million and government domestic debt stood at $2 billion.

“While this level of debt appears high, our debt level is quite sustainable, keeping in mind the spending pattern of the Treasury,” Mr Masawe said last month.

The IMF estimates that Tanzania’s public debt will rise to $19 billion by mid-2016, and that if the country’s borrowing appetite is unchecked could reach $25 billion by 2018.

READ: IMF warns Tanzania over borrowing spree

According to KPMG, last year the Tanzania’s government’s total external debt hit 42 per cent of GDP due to budgetary deficits; the country turned to both external and internal borrowing to bridge the gap.

Despite Rwanda’s impressive GDP growth, its domestic borrowing accounted for only 0.3 per cent of GDP in 2013, an increase from the negative figures posted in 2012.

Ministry of Finance data shows that Rwanda’s total public and publicly guaranteed debt is estimated at $2.16 billion, representing 30.2 per cent of GDP.

During the Eurobond issue in April 2013, National Bank of Rwanda Governor John Rwangombwa said the country had a low risk of debt distress and therefore the use of non-concessional borrowing would not affect debt sustainability.

Last month, the IMF projected that Rwanda’s growth would reach 7.5 per cent this year, up from 5 per cent in 2013.

Last year, Rwanda’s GDP growth dropped to 4.5 per cent from 7.3 per cent in 2012 due to aid-related delays in implementing strategic investment programmes and tight fiscal and monetary policy.

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