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Diversity will save African economies

Tuesday May 23 2017
george

Dr Edward George is the head of group research at Ecobank. PHOTO | FILE

The Ecobank UK country head Edward George spoke to Njiraini Muchira about East Africa’s trade opportunities.

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There has been a decline in intra-Africa trade. Is it because banks are not financing trade as they should?

That is not true, if you look at the massive flows through key border points. Intra-Africa trade is much bigger than the official figures of 15 per cent. Most of the flows are not captured, and the challenge for intra-regional trade is financing the small traders and bringing them into the formal financial system.

Economic growth in Africa is on a slowdown. What are the reversal options for 2017?

Countries like Angola, Equatorial Guinea and Nigeria that are heavily dependent on a single commodity — crude oil, which has recently lost a lot value — are in a lot of trouble. But if you look at a country like Kenya, the economy is diversified, with the largest single export being horticultural produce.

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Diversity of an economy is important, which is why Kenya, Senegal and Côte d’Ivoire are doing well. The fall in commodity prices is not an issue if you have a diversified economy.

Local banks seem to do well, compared with multinational banks. Why?

I think it comes down to local knowledge. The problem with some foreign investors is thinking they can teach Africa, yet they need to learn about Africa.

East African economies are dependent on agriculture, which is facing many challenges. What are the options?

East Africa needs to plan long-term for agriculture. The average age of a farmer is 40 years. Governments need to get the younger generation to go into farming. And they should not talk about agriculture but rather agribusiness.

Do you think the Trump presidency is good for Africa?

I think Donald Trump wants increased investment and may even revive the US Export Import Bank — and that means more trade finance for Africa. What is worrying is that he wants to roll back certain health programmes and also thinks giving aid is not acceptable.

President Barack Obama promised $7 billion in aid to Africa, but I am not sure this will be forthcoming this year. Africa is not a high priority for President Trump but, having said that, I think the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act is safe. Actual trade flows under Agoa are only about $4 billion — a drop in the ocean.

How will Brexit impact East Africa?
Brexit has put the brakes on discussions on trade deals. But British companies will still do business with Africa.

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