Coffee production in East Africa is expected to drop by a million bags due to erratic weather conditions, pests and diseases, experts say.

A Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) report has projected that Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and Ethiopia will together produce 11.9 million bags of coffee in the 2016-17 season, from the 2015-16 output of 12.9 million bags.

Ethiopia’s coffee output in next one year will be 6.5 million bags, the same as last year, and Kenya is forecast to increase production from 650,000 to 700,000 bags.

Uganda’s output will drop from 4.5 million to 3.7 million bags, and Tanzania’s production will fall to 1.05 million bags from 1.25 million last year. 

FAS Dar es Salaam agriculture specialist Ben Mtaki said output of coffee in Tanzania will reduce because of the biennial bearing cycle.

Coffee trees, especially arabica, have alternate heavy and light crops cycles. Pruning can minimise biennial bearing by maintaining an acceptable ratio of leaf to crop and ensuring that enough new suckers are produced.

Tanzania is implementing a strategic plan to double coffee production by 2021; the crop accounts for about five per cent of total exports, and generates earnings of about $100 million per year.

The industry provides direct income to some 400,000 smallholders who produce 90 per cent of Tanzania’s coffee. Most of the coffee is exported as local consumption is estimated at just seven per cent of total production.

“Although there is expansion of new farms and improvement of agronomic practices, erratic weather due to climate change remains an underlying challenge to sustainable coffee production in Tanzania,” said Mr Mtaki.

The main export destinations for Tanzania’s coffee are Japan, Italy, the US, Germany, Belgium and Finland. Tanzania also exports soluble coffee manufactured at a plant in Bukoba to neighbouring countries.

In Uganda, exports are forecast to remain flat and stocks to increase due to coffee import restrictions in Sudan. Uganda Coffee Development Authority (UCDA) is implementing a programme to increase the planted area and yields.

UCDA’s data on exports shows that in July 2015 there was 16 per cent and 18 per cent increase in volume and value respectively. Uganda exported 403,381 bags each of 60 kilogrammes compared with 335,405 bags in June.

“Out of the total volume exported in July, the country earned $43 million up from $35 million value realised the previous month,” said UCDA.

FAS Nairobi agriculture specialist Kennedy Gitonga said the fluctuation of coffee output in Kenya was due to the El Nino weather conditions last year.