Diane Shima Rwigara is the 35-year old Rwandan who declared, on May 3, her intention to run for president in the August 4 presidential elections.

A few days after her declaration, a political ruffian shared her nude photos on social media urging us to “look at our presidential candidate.” This sparked both outrage and sympathy from social media users.

Sympathisers denounced sharing of the photos while moral charlatans termed the pictures an immoral act. Some interpreted sharing of the pictures as an act of revenge by an angry lover while others saw it as a political move intended to dissuade the youthful and only female presidential aspirant from pursuing her goal.

Since our society is still culturally conservative, it is reasonable to view Diane’s candidacy as dead on arrival despite her insistence that “The shaming made her stronger, more resilient and determined,” to soldier on as The EastAfrican reported last week.

But, even if she hadn’t been smeared, I would still put Diane’s chances of winning at zero, just like the other three hopefuls who have declared their intention to run against President Paul Kagame.

This prediction isn’t based on the requirements asked of presidential aspirants (like raising 600 signatures from all the 30 districts before their candidature can be confirmed) or the short campaign period (three weeks), which some see as being a disadvantage for the incumbent’s opponents. Nor is this prediction premised on the usual suspicions placed on almost every presidential election in Africa, which is that the votes will be stolen.

I believe that even in a free and fair election, Kagame would easily beat his opponents and I offer four broad reasons.

The four reasons are history; the outcome of the 2015 referendum; the RPF’s organisation structure and financial muscle; and the opponents’ weaknesses vis-à-vis the stature and achievements of the incumbent.

First reason: Historically, since the country started direct elections for the presidency in 1965, no incumbent has ever lost an election or got less than 90 per cent of the electoral vote.

While this was a period of single-party rule, it was unthinkable and considered “poor upbringing” for anyone to think of competing against the head of state who was referred to as Umubyeyi w’Igihugu “The Parent of the Nation.”

It was only under the RPF-led political dispensation that some semblance of political competition was introduced after the 2003 Constitution was promulgated. In the elections of 2003, President Kagame got 95 per cent of the vote and in subsequent elections in 2010, he was declared winner with 93.08 per cent of the votes.

Second reason: In 2015, 98 per cent of voters endorsed the referendum that led to the amendment of Article 101 of the Constitution that gave President Kagame a chance to run for a third term. Prior to the referendum, about four million Rwandans had petitioned parliament to scrap article 101 to specifically allow Kagame to stand again. It is therefore blind optimism to think that after three quarters of the electorate requested for the constitution to be changed so that Kagame can stand again, that they would cast their vote for anyone else.

Third reason: The RPF is the only party with the organisation structure from the village level to the national level. Combined with its financial muscle, it is difficult to see how competitors can compete with this power.

Fourth reason: I haven’t seen or heard anything from any of the opponents that is enough to upset the status quo. Beyond academic qualifications, and using similar slogans like promoting democracy or fighting poverty and injustice without telling us how, there is little about the opponents that would convince the voters to replace the incumbent.

All of them have appeared in the news, not to articulate their vision or demonstrate special leadership abilities, but to only announce their intent to run.

However, the man they seek to replace not only knows how power is gained but has also demonstrated that he understands its purpose.

That is why, even if all the presidential aspirants are allowed to run by the electoral commission, I can’t see their combined vote exceeding five per cent of the total votes cast. That said, I still give Diane some points for demonstrating valour by imagining that she can be our next president and I believe her candidature demonstrates to our daughters that they too can dream big and no office is out of reach them.

Christopher Kayumba, PhD. Senior Lecturer, School of Journalism and Communication, UR; Lead consultant, MGC Consult International Ltd. E-mail: [email protected]; twitter account: @Ckayumba Website:www.mgcconsult.com