News of the now-foiled coup d’état against President Pierre Nkurunziza of Burundi found me in a cab from Julius Nyerere airport on my way to Dar es Salaam.

As the cab driver explained the exhausting effect of traffic jams in Dar, a well connected friend I was travelling with received a telephone call from Bujumbura delivering the news that Gen Godfroid Niyombare had just announced Nkurunziza’s removal from power and that jubilant crowds were on the streets celebrating.

After that, our conversation shifted to the meaning of events in Burundi, the region and evolution of democracy on the continent.

With clearly little sympathy for what had befallen the self-declared born-again president, my friend observed that, with relentless demonstrations stretching for weeks, the writing had been on the wall and wondered how the man had decided to leave a country on edge to attend a meeting whose outcome he could easily have predicted considering that the region’s heads of state had independently commented on the unfolding crisis.

The coup dominated an EAC media summit the following day with delegates discussing its implications and denouncing attacks on independent media by loyalist forces.

In between, I asked a Kenyan acquaintance what he made of the coup. On the whole, he told me, he was conflicted. On one hand, he said: “I have no sympathy for President Nkurunziza for seeking to manipulate the law to stay in power.” On the other, he added: “I don’t support a coup because it is wrong and undemocratic. It is an extrajudicial way of resolving the problem.”

That second sentiment was popular among delegates. Within 24 hours, however, the tide had changed amid news that the coup had failed, with conflicting versions of the whereabouts of Nkurunziza. But, as we now know, the man returned to the seat of power using a route he probably never planned to use.

What exactly happened remained a subject of contention. For instance, while the coup plotters said they had been overpowered by loyalist forces, some commentators noted the incompetence with which the putschists went about their deed as resembling the alleged incompetence their country had been led for 10 years following the end of the civil war while others claimed it was stage-managed.

The Citizen newspaper, of Tanzania, quoted a senior Tanzanian diplomat as claiming: “What I know is that someone is trying to show the world that without President Nkurunziza anything can happen. On the other hand, there are people who have sensed the outcome of the meeting and have moved to pre-empt it.

“I’m not sure if, indeed, that is a coup because the person who organised it was sacked from the army in February; so it’s not a military coup.”

Scepticism aside, a coup is no joking matter and, considering the unsophisticated manner with which Nkurunziza went about his third term bid, it’s difficult to believe he could pull off such a plot.

To me then, he becomes the region’s first political Lazarus for reclaiming his position that few expected, considering that it happened when he was outside the country, has minimal military expertise and protesters on the streets were up in arms with his regime.

What’s now important is how Nkurunziza will use the rare chance he has been handed at the helm of power. Will he adopt an hard-line approach, crack down on his opponents and force the third term that caused the crisis, or will he rescue his country from the blink and therefore redeem his reputation?

Clearly, to save Burundi from further bloodshed he will need to renounce his quest for a third term, postpone elections for at least a year and let his party pick another candidate for the presidential polls.

From the look of things however, it doesn’t look as if he will tap into his higher self. One of the clearest indicators is his giving Burundians a media blackout by putting independent radios off air, cracking down on demonstrators and resorting to short-term manoeuvres such as extending parliamentary elections by just a week!

What Nkurunziza plans to achieve in a week is difficult to fathom — just as it’s not clear how, even if he gets the controversial third term, he intends to rule a divided country and split army amid an unsupportive region and international community.

Dr Christopher Kayumba, PhD, is a senior lecturer at the School of Journalism, the University of Rwanda, and managing consultant at MGC Consult. E-mail: [email protected] ; Twitter: @CKayumba