The opposition has described the recent research by the upper chamber of parliament, that among other things, measured the approval ratings of President Paul Kagame’s governance credentials, as a façade that casts a dark cloud on the integrity of the House that sponsored it.

The study, which was commissioned by the Senate and conducted by the Institute for Policy Analysis and Research Rwanda, says Rwandans have a relatively low trust in the courts of law and parliament but have much confidence in the Head of State and Rwanda Defence Forces (RDF).

Working with an achieved sample size of 3,837 persons aged 18 years and above, researchers cite President Kagame’s citizen approval as 98.7 per cent.

He is followed by the military at 96.2 per cent. Interestingly, respondents say they do not give the same approval to the ruling Rwanda Patriotic Front (RPF) party, which the president leads.

Political parties are the least trusted with approval ratings of 61.3 per cent while the RPF stands at 86.7 per cent and the Senate scored 83.4 per cent.

But critics said this scenario, where the president overshadows parliament and courts, the would-be key defenders of people’s rights, was a cause for concern as it erodes institutional growth.

Absolved ruling party from claims

They added that the motive of the Senate to gauge the popularity of the president at a moment when the country was at a crossroads as regards succession matters creates a probable relationship between the report and events leading up to the 2017 General Election.

However, ahead of 2017, the point of contention among Rwandans remains whether President Kagame will respect the constitution and stand down as his mandate expires or he will seek to amend the supreme law to allow him another term in office.

Senator Dr Tito Rutaremara, Prof Chrysologue Karangwa and Jean Damascene Bizimana comprised the team that co-ordinated the research. The first two men are senior RPF cadres while the last is a former Cabinet minister.

Sen Rutaremara absolved his party from claims of crediting every national achievement to the goodwill and wisdom of the president.

He noted: “You see, he [President Kagame] has been central to numerous positives we have realised… so people will always take note.”

Yet the report, titled The Quest for Solutions through Dialogue and Consensus in Rwanda: The Mechanisms for Dialogue and Consensus, has been described by the opposition as mere RPF propaganda.

“It’s just raising points for the ruling party and a propaganda whitepaper,” said Dr Frank Habineza, the Democratic Green Party of Rwanda leader.

“This report is, indeed, lacking; it has not raised issues concerning the democratic process, freedoms of association, assembly and the media and above all just concludes that RPF is the best.”

While it is a constitutional obligation for the upper House to monitor the mechanisms, the extension to measure popularity of the president seems to have rubbed the opposition and a section of scholars the wrong way.

“I do not have to labour to explain the sham reports produced by the RPF institutions. I was its secretary-general and I ran Kagame’s presidency, as you know. I know the system inside out,” Dr Theogene Rudasingwa, the co-ordinator of Rwanda National Congress (RNC), an exiled opposition group operating from Washington, told Rwanda Today.

Cannot deliver good governance

The RNC has announced that it will not participate in the 2017 presidential elections because it wants to unite Rwandans first before pushing for regime change.

READ: Rwanda National Congress goes for new faces in party elections

The report rates knowledge of the mandatory community work (umuganda) at 83 per cent while the annual national dialogue is least known – at 51 per cent. Also, respondents give favourable ratings to initiatives like Ingando, Gacaca and Itorero.

But politicians outside government say these initiatives cannot deliver good governance as citizens “go there to be informed of new policies from above” instead of actively engaging the government on how they want to be governed.

Asked whether the mechanisms for consensus building are working given the influx of politicians fleeing the country, Sen Rutaremara said some of those running away are not credible people. Rwanda has a myriad political groups operating from exile.

A political commentator who sought anonymity observed: “Meaningful dialogue should bring ruling and opposition politicians to the table… the citizens must dialogue with the government on how they want to be governed – through freedom of assembly and proper electoral process.”

Omar Bizuru is a senior lecturer at the University of Rwanda College of Arts and Social Sciences. He said he thought that, because exiled groups tend to work together, the sitting government is left with no option but to be suspicious of that arrangement – since some of them, like FDLR, have a criminal record that dates to the 1994 Genocide against the Tutsi.

“Therefore, mere political tendency becomes a serious security concern as state institutions take interest in how these forces relate,” the don said.

Boniface Twagirimana of FDU-Inkingi however ruled out the possibility that even parties operating from within can ever wrest state power from RPF through an election, arguing that the periodic elections are “a drama, kind of”.

He said that, until the government’s attitude towards democratic changes, there was no need for elections.

Sen Rutaremara however said: “The elections are always free and fair… we have others in 2017 – they [opposition groups] should wait and see if they will not be free and fair.”