Kenyan officials say the decision to close the Dadaab refugee camp that houses close to a million refugees from nearly 13 nationalities --majority of who are of Somali origin -- is final.

The Kenyan government argues that the key terror attacks like those that involved Westgate, Lamu and Garissa University College, were planned at the camp.

And Kenya has every right to close down the world’s biggest refugee camp if it feels its security is threatened. However being part of the larger international community, are there other considerations that need to be taken into account?

Is it possible that this move might boomerang on the Kenyan government and make the security situation worse? And will the move equally have an economic impact on Kenya?

The answer to these questions is a big yes. Sample these facts: Rough estimates indicate that the Kenyan economy will lose Ksh80 million ($800,000) a month if they go ahead and close the camp. The World Bank estimates that the approximately Ksh1.4 billion ($140m) economic microcosm will be run down with the closure of the camp followed by the destabilisation of the local pastoral community’s way of life.

In a research done last year when a similar announcement was made but later rescinded, the World Bank concluded that the host community would lose an annual income of Ksh300 million ($3 million a year) income from the sale of livestock and milk to the refugees alone.

Apart from the pastoralists, financial institutions — especially those that deal in money remittances — also stand to take a hit. Other sectors that will similarly be hurt include the many shopping complexes, the taxi and matatu industry, suppliers of goods and services and hotels.

As the refugees leave, these businesses will cease as demand for goods and services wane due to lack of purchasing power. For an area that is classified as arid or semi-arid, such an economic dent is weighty. The absence of income generating activities is bound to make insecurity in the region far worse.

Those who are on the ground say that if Kenya goes ahead and closes the Dadaab camp and repatriates the majority of the refugees back to Somalia, the move may onetime come back to haunt the country. According to this school of thought, with no means of livelihood, those who will have been repatriated will become easy target recruits for Al Shabaab and other terror groups.

This view is shared by the Somali government. As soon as Kenya made known its intentions to close down Dadaab, the Somali government through a press statement by the Foreign Affairs ministry observed that, “expelling vulnerable Somali refugees at a time Somalia is making internationally recognised progress towards stability will only increase the risk of insecurity in the region.”

And the Somali government has made it expressly clear that it has not put in place the necessary structures to host those who will be returning from Kenya. The government has stated that it neither has the means nor capacity to house its citizens who are being resettled from Kenya.

Somalia further argues that there already exists an agreement between Kenya, Somalia and United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) on the movement of refugees back to Somalia. Abandoning the initial program, according to Somalia, will be a legal and moral failing on the part of Kenya.

At this stage, it is prudent that the Kenyan government takes into account the socio-economic impact of the sudden change in income status of millions of its citizenry and puts in place short and long term mitigation measures.

Kenya’s, and indeed African Union Mission in Somalia’s (Amisom), immense socio-economic sacrifice will be a wasted effort if there is a resurgence in terror activities in the region. The closure of Dadaab therefore needs to be tied to the overall Kenyan and Amisom exit strategy and the long term Somalia’s stabilisation plan.

Under such an exit strategy facilitated by the Amisom, there is a need to have Kenyan/Amisom troops to take an active role in resettling the Somali refugees in safe areas with social amenities such as schools, houses and equipping them with essential skills that will make them productive citizens.

If not, then closing Dadaab maybe ill-timed fodder for Al Shabaab and other militants to recruit even more lethal loyalists and in the end boomerang on Kenya and the region.

Ideally, the very notion of sending refugees and asylum seekers back to Somalia, where they will be exposed to Al Shabaab’s brutality — the very reason why some of them fled the country — is perilous and imprudent. And this is why we cannot delink the closure of the Dadaab refugee camp from the overall joint effort of Amisom’s and international community stabilisation plans for Somalia.

Aden Abdirisak is the executive chairman of Farsight Africa Group. [email protected].