The United Nations recently released some refreshed numbers about the future of our populations.

For those interested in the geopolitics of the wider East African, there was some juicy stuff in there.

For example, it said Ethiopia is one of nine countries that will account for half of the world’s population growth over the next 35 years. In 2050, it will have 188 million citizens, and would be contributing the fifth fastest growth to world population at that point, ahead of Tanzania, the US, Indonesia and Uganda, and just behind India, Nigeria, Pakistan and the DR Congo.

In 2100, Ethiopia is projected to have some 243 million people, and will be the ninth most populous nation in the world, and fourth largest by population in Africa after Nigeria, DRC and Tanzania.

Then things get interesting. DRC is projected to have 389 million, and Tanzania 299 million. So while today Ethiopia is the second largest African country with a population of 99 million, DRC is fourth with 77 million and Tanzania sixth with 53 million, they will both have convincingly overtaken it by 2100.

Some years ago, Kenyans were, to use an expression beloved by Ugandan politicians, multiplying like rabbits. In fact they were world champions.

These days Kenya has dropped out of the breeding game, and has passed the baton to Uganda and Tanzania.

Now several economic scenarios also have Tanzania, Ethiopia, and DRC being among the most fabulously wealthy nations in Africa by 2050.

What few are talking about is the politics. It is relatively easy to project population; difficult to forecast economics; and virtually impossible to predict politics.

Nevertheless, in the 2050 East Africa overflowing with Ethiopians, Congolese, Tanzanians and Ugandans (for now, we shall not even talk of 2100), I would not sleep with both eyes closed if I were Burundian, Rwandan, or Djiboutian.

Burundi and Rwanda will be sandwiched between countries that are massively bigger than them in population, land size, and possibly in wealth too. They will simply be overrun metaphorically, and possibly even in reality.

There could come a time when either Tanzania or DRC will have enough warm bodies that they can afford to arm them with sticks and they will trample all Burundi and Rwanda, even if all of them were killed in the end, and they wouldn’t be missed back home.

Djibouti is in greater peril vis-a-vis Ethiopia. Today it has about 25 per cent of the population of just Addis Ababa. By 2050, it will be the size of a big Ethiopian village.

It’s the main sea route for Ethiopia, but realistically how long can it expect the behemoth to keep negotiating and begging for trade routes? Its future may therefore be as an Ethiopian province.

Djibouti should offer itself to Addis on its terms soon, rather than wait to be gobbled up in the future on Ethiopian terms.

This of course is playing devil’s advocate, but if I were Rwanda or Djibouti, I would still take preventive measures.

I would ensure that by the time we get to 2050, I would be 50 years technologically ahead of Uganda, Tanzania, and DRC, and Ethiopia.

Never hurts to have a Plan C.

Charles Onyango-Obbo is editor of Mail & Guardian Africa (mgafrica.com). Twitter@cobbo3