Advertisement

What is a failed state? Look over your shoulder

Sunday June 26 2011

That most hated, controversial, and debated report, the “Failed States Index,” the one for 2011, came out last week.

African countries dominated the 2011 list. According to the index, which is compiled every year by the US organisation Fund for Peace and Foreign Policy magazine, African nations make up seven of the top 10 worst cases, and 14 of the top 20 failed states.

Somalia, which is almost perennially reported to be in hell, was number 1, for the fourth year running. Chad was 2nd, Sudan 3rd, DR Congo 4th, Zimbabwe 6th, Central African Republic 8th, and Cote d’Ivoire 10th.

The Failed States has rarely judged Kenya generously. This time Kenya is placed 16th. From an East African perspective, that places Kenya as the most failed state in the East African Community. On its tail at 17th is another EAC state, Burundi.

Uganda is just four places away at 21st. Rwanda is a little further down at 34th.

The “good news” for the EAC is that Tanzania does much better, placing 65th.

Advertisement

One of the main criticisms of the Failed States Index, is that the very idea of a “failed” nation is repugnant. Some critics also argue that the criteria used by the Index are racist because they virtually ensure that Caucasian countries will score best.

Indeed, the least failed nations are all Caucasian.

However, the Index also takes into account factors that most people never consider in judging their own countries. For example, the disparity between the rich and poor is an important factor. Thus Kenya and Uganda are the most unequal countries in the EAC — and Tanzania the least.

Then there is crime, and group grievance or, to put it crudely, tribalism. Again, Tanzania is the least troubled EAC nation in this respect.

I see three tests that the poor EAC performers fail:

One is what I would call “the look-over-your-shoulder” exam. In most of East Africa, most people still have to look over their shoulders to see if a mugger is moving in on them; if you are being trailed because of what you wrote or the criticism you made of the state; or because of the ethnic group you come from.

The second is the “hidden machete” test. Either people are so afraid they will be attacked by hostile neighbours, like in Kenya’s Rift Valley, or they have such a deep grievance against a particular group, they will keep a machete under the bed to protect themselves, or to attack “enemies” at the first opportunity.

In Kenya, Uganda, Burundi, and Rwanda, I can see why people will hide a machete in the ceiling.

The reason is less obvious in Tanzania. It is a corrupt and often jingoist and xenophobic place, but Tanzania is not menacing.

Finally, there is the “double speak” test. In the other EAC states, I am struck by how people who say all the nice things and are “tribeless” in public, become wild-eyed chauvinists behind closed doors.

I am often surprised when even cynical Tanzanians talk passionately about how “we are one” in private, and of the need to love and help one another.

If the other EAC nations can tackle the three demons above, they will come out smelling of roses in future Failed States indexes.

Charles Onyango-Obbo is Nation Media Group’s executive editor for Africa & Digital Media. E-mail: [email protected]

Advertisement